Paul Dietrich's Global Investing Trends Report
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What Will The Market Do From Now Until The End Of The Year?

Posted October 3, 2007 · 0 Comments
You were right about the stock market going through a typical summer pull-back, since it has now bounced back to its recent record highs in July. What will the stock market do from now until the end of the year? PATIENCE IS ALWAYS A VIRTUE One of the behavioral characteristics of professional investors is an ability to resist getting caught-up in the emotions of the stock market as it reacts to the most current daily drama being spotlighted in the news! Professionals keep their concentration focused like a laser on those specific indicators that actually drive the fundamentals of the stock market over time. read more

Will Gas And Oil Prices Keep Rising?

Posted December 31, 2007 · 0 Comments
My clients keep asking me if oil and gasoline prices are going to continue to rise. Will they ever go back down? In the long run, oil and gas prices will continue to go up and Americans must prepare themselves to spend a higher percentage of their household budgets in the future on gasoline, heating oil and food (more about food in another issue of this newsletter). Oil and gas prices are being driven by two LONG-TERM INVESTING TRENDS. read more

When Will The Recession End?

Posted April 30, 2009 · 0 Comments
The stock market has rallied over the past 5 weeks. Is this the beginning of the new bull market or is this a bear market rally that will be followed by new stock market lows? When do you think this bear market recession will end? Economists often say that the stock market always starts to go up before the “real economy” recovers and often goes up before a recession ends. That is only partially true. read more

How Will The Decline In Real Estate Effect The Economy?

Posted July 25, 2007 · 7 Comments
I keep reading that the U.S. economy is slowing, partially because of the decline in real estate. How will this effect the stock market over the next few months? As I am writing this commentary, it is Thursday July 26, 2007, and the DOW dropped 311 points today or about 2.26%, because of housing market fears. Just so you know, a 2.26% drop in the market is not near enough of a decline for FOXHALL to implement our “DEFENSIVE” strategy and move out of the stock market and into bonds. The stock markets have reached record highs this month in the DOW and S&P 500 INDEXES. This is simply a short-term correction with a lot of institutional investors taking profits. read more

Are We Heading Into A Recession?

Posted October 10, 2007 · 0 Comments
This week the stock market and the Dow broke through to new record highs. But my clients are stilled worried about an imminent recession. What should I tell them? First, I do not believe there will be a recession either this year or next year. The overall U.S. economy and the global economy are doing too well, at the moment, and since the stock market has always tracked the overall economy in the long run, I believe that the next bear market is distant enough in the future that it is still a good time for stock market investors to be “in the market”! Make no mistake about it, eventually we will have a recession but that will only happen when the OVERALL economy starts to deteriorate. read more

2008 A Year In Review

Posted December 30, 2008 · 1 Comment
2008 Was Not A Great Year. Few tears will be shed at 2008’s passing—at least from an investment perspective. 2008 began with a business slowdown and is ending with the world caught in the grip of the most severe economic recession since the Great Depression. All this is happening in the context of a world in the throes of extraordinary change, and a planet that is morphing into one economy. read more

China's Super Cycle

Posted August 18, 2008 · 0 Comments
Discovering a potentially lucrative super cycle, Dietrich thinks, is a lot easier than uncovering -- and investing early in -- the next mega-company such as Google. Super cycles reflect long-term trends based on global transformations, demographics, supply and demand pressures. Some examples: health care, because of the aging boomer population; and energy and food, because of swelling demand from emerging economies. read more

When Do You Think Commodities And Asian Markets Will Start Going Up?

Posted September 4, 2008 · 31 Comments
At Foxhall Capital we “follow trends” rather than try to predict short-term stock market ups and downs. People tend to have short memories—In August 2007, oil prices dropped about 20%—just as they have this year after first climbing to new highs. I remember receiving calls from investors asking if they should move their portfolios out of commodities like oil and gold. read more

When Will Oil Prices Stop Going Up?

Posted May 16, 2008 · 0 Comments
My clients keep asking me when oil prices will stop going up. What do I tell them? OIL PRICES WILL KEEP GOING UP! As I have mentioned before in the FOXHALL GLOBAL OUTLOOK there are many factors causing oil to go up. First is supply and demand. While we Americans continue to complain about prices, we still consumed more gasoline last year than we did the previous year. China and India are now the second and third largest auto markets in the world and they are consuming record amounts of new gasoline. read more

Why Is Global Investing Important?

Posted May 5, 2008 · 0 Comments
One of my clients asked me why global investing was important. Are there any studies that definitively explain the importance of global diversification in a client’s investment portfolio? YES—GLOBAL DIVERSIFICATION IS A MUST! After your grandmother told you as a child to always “buy low and sell high,” she also probably reminded you “not to put all of your eggs in one basket”—at least that’s what my grandmother used to tell me! That is the underlying timeless wisdom of global diversification. read more

Why Are Prices Of Oil Continuing To Go UP?

Posted April 28, 2008 · 1 Comment
Why is the price of oil continuing to go up? There are a number of reasons for high oil prices. The most important is “SUPPLY AND DEMAND” created by the growing consumption of newly developed countries in Asia and Latin America, like China, India, Mexico and Brazil. China is now the second largest car market in the world. Another reason is that oil is priced in “DOLLARS PER BARREL” and when the dollar drops in value, the price of oil automatically goes up, because it takes more dollars to buy the same barrel of oil. read more

How Long Will This Recession And Bear Market Last

Posted April 6, 2008 · 17 Comments
Make no mistake! WE ARE IN A RECESSION and this one could be severe. Don’t believe the TV pundits who tell you this bear market will be over by the fall. If that were to occur, it would be historically unprecedented. Expect this recession/bear market to last most of two years! FOXHALL CAPITAL’S disciplined investment process and proprietary long term market indicator responded to the market shift and has systematically positioned client portfolios in “defensive investments” that have traditionally made money during downturns in the markets. read more

Americans Have A Lot To Be Thankful For This Independence Day

Posted July 1, 2008 · 0 Comments
As we approach the July 4th holiday, the news couldn’t be gloomier. U.S. and global stock markets continue to decline and are flirting with worldwide recession. The financial sector is in crisis; housing values have fallen to their 2004 levels and are still dropping; the U.S. dollar is in free-fall; we haven’t even begun to see the peak in home foreclosures; unemployment is up; oil prices are outrageous and a box of cereal will cost twice as much by next year. It’s hard to see a silver lining in all this bad news—or even a way out of this mess. read more

Will the Slowdown In The U.S. Affect Asian Markets

Posted July 10, 2007 · 0 Comments
THE U.S. ECONOMY IS STILL GROWING! First, note that the U.S. economy is doing quite well. While it is not growing as fast as it was in 2003, it is still growing. Barring some international geo-political crisis, the U.S. economy and the U.S. stock market should continue to make gains over the next three years. But to answer your question, how would a U.S. economic downturn affect Asia? The answer is that the continuing rise in Asian domestic demand, more diversification in exports, and a looser monetary policy give Asia some armor against any future U.S slowdown. read more

What Is Happening To The Market?

Posted January 21, 2008 · 7 Comments
GREETINGS FROM HONG KONG! As all of you know, FOXHALL CAPITAL officially announced at the end of trading on Thursday, January 10, 2008, our FOXHALL CAPITAL LONG-TERM STOCK MARKET DIRECTION INDICATOR triggered a DEFENSIVE STRATEGY which means we are now entering a BEAR MARKET. FOXHALL’S TIMING WAS PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET! read more

How Does Foxhall Determine We Are Entering Into A Bear Market?

Posted November 20, 2007 · 0 Comments
I know you have been warning for several months that the U.S. economy is slowing, but what are the exact “stock market triggers” that FOXHALL CAPITAL uses to determine that the stock market has moved into a bear market or recession? How do these triggers “specifically work” and exactly when will you notify clients that FOXHALL CAPITAL believes we have entered into a bear market or recession and FOXHALL CAPITAL is moving its investment portfolios to it FOXHALL DEFENSIVE INVESTMENT STRATEGY? read more

Is The Market Going Forward In This Economy?

Posted September 18, 2007 · 0 Comments
Yesterday the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates and the stock market went up strongly. What does this mean in terms of the economy and the stock market going forward? For regular readers of the FOXHALL GLOBAL OUTLOOK, I have mentioned several times over the past six weeks that if the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates the stock market would take off. That is exactly what happened on Tuesday. BIGGEST ONE-DAY MARKET INCREASE IN 5-YEARS read more

Unemployment is Rising- Are We Heading Towards A Recession?

Posted September 11, 2007 · 0 Comments
Last week U.S. unemployment started to rise. Does this mean the economy is starting to slow? Are we in danger of a recession? There was an unexpected drop in U.S. employment for August, but the decline may signal more of a short-term confidence crisis among employers than a significant economic downturn. To be sure, the loss of 4,000 jobs for August reported last Friday-the first drop in four years-will weigh heavily in the Federal Reserve's decision on whether to lower benchmark interest rates (a move which Wall Street now considers a certainty). A loss of confidence could lead to still more job cuts and slower spending. But a timely rate cut would likely repair the damage quickly. If the Federal Reserve does lower interest rates at its meeting on September 18th, EXPECT A BIG JUMP IN THE STOCK MARKET THAT DAY. read more

How Much To Diversify Our Portfolios Outside The U.S. Market?

Posted September 6, 2007 · 0 Comments
Given the recent turmoil in the U.S. stock markets because of the subprime mortgage scandals, how much should an investor diversify their investment portfolios outside of the United States? THE RISK OF JUST INVESTING IN THE U.S. The impact of the so-called “sub-prime mortgage crisis” on the U.S. stock market-remember that sub-prime lending is a very tiny piece of the overall economy-serves to remind us that investing in a single country heightens the volatility and risk EVEN when that one country is the United States! This is why almost every academic study points out that global diversification is the secret to managing risk in any investment portfolio. read more

Do You Think The Stock Markets Will Continue To Go Down?

Posted August 28, 2007 · 0 Comments
The stock market seems to have calmed down this past week. Do you think that will continue? What should I tell my clients? The market had its most stable week in a month last week. The DOW JONES INDEX rose back above 13,300 and finished up 2.29% for the week, the S&P 500 INDEX rose 2.31%, and the NASDAQ added 2.86%. TWO PRINCIPLES FOR INVESTMENT SUCCESS Robert Hagin, the former University of Pennsylvania Wharton School of Finance professor taught that there are really only two principles that someone needs to know and understand in order to be a successful investor. read more

The Market Is Declining- When Does Foxhall Make Adjustments?

Posted August 17, 2007 · 1 Comment
The Stock Market has been declining over the past month. At what point will FOXHALL CAPITAL switch to bonds or money markets? FOXHALL CAPITAL uses a proprietary system with “stop-loss triggers” to determine when the stock market is entering a major correction or a long-term bear market/recession. Normally, FOXHALL CAPITAL does not sell its positions when there is a simple “pull back” in the stock market or a minor correction. An investor almost always loses money when you try to time the market in pull backs and minor corrections. No one knows how to get out at the top and get back in at the bottom. If the market goes right back up, as it tends to do after most minor corrections, you will usually lose money getting in and out, rather than riding it out. read more

How Does Foxhall Manage Risk With The Current Turmoil In The Middle East?

Posted June 26, 2007 · 0 Comments
I keep reading that a political mishap or an escalation in wars in the Middle East could dramatically drive up oil prices and the stock market would go down. How does FOXHALL CAPITAL manage this type of risk? We believe that every investor in the stock market should always have a portion of their investments in “HARD ASSETS. “ Hard assets are investments in real things like oil, real estate, currencies, raw materials, gold, silver and other precious metals. read more

What Is Foxhall's Investment Strategy?

Posted June 19, 2007 · 0 Comments
How do I explain Foxhall Capital’s global investment strategy to my clients? Foxhall Capital employs a GLOBAL MARKET ROTATION investment strategy. As global stock markets rise and fall and economies throughout the world strengthen and weaken, we constantly adjust the mix of global Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and mutual funds that are held in our client’s portfolios. Our GLOBAL MARKETS ROTATION strategy is based on the following principals: read more

The Economy Is Doing Well

Posted June 12, 2007 · 0 Comments
Although it has taken over seven years, the S&P 500 INDEX recently broke through and surpassed its high from the year 2000. However, U.S. stocks took a beating this past week, because-well,-THE ECONOMY IS DOING TOO WELL. Why would there be a sell-off in the stock market if the economy is doing well? I know that doesn’t make any sense to most investors, but this is the reasoning. Most economists and Wall Street insiders thought that slowing corporate earnings, the sub-prime mortgage debt crisis, and slowing real estate and new housing markets would force the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. And lower interest rates are usually good for the stock market. read more

Is Foxhall Ready For The Chinese Market Correction?

Posted June 6, 2007 · 52 Comments
At Foxhall Capital, we never try to anticipate when something will happen in a stock market, we simply follow the market in the direction it is already going and when there is a major correction we will take defensive actions to manage risk in our client’s portfolios. We continue to watch the Chinese markets carefully. read more


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About Paul Dietrich
Paul Dietrich is the Chairman, CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer of Foxhall Capital Management, Inc. (Foxhall).  Foxhall currently manages investments for individuals, mutual funds and private institutions throughout the United States. Paul Dietrich is also a portfolio manager to a publicly traded mutual fund, the Foxhall Global Trends Fund.
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