Paul Dietrich's Global Investing Trends Report
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The Lost Decade

Posted March 31, 2010 · 0 Comments
Since the beginning of this year, 2010, through March 15th, the S&P 500 Index is up only about 3%. Almost every American knows that the U.S. Economy is not very strong. Are we going to be stuck in a sideways stock market? How long do you think that will last? Historically, transition periods going from recessions into bull markets are highly volatile and fraught with possible dangers for investors. read more

When Will The Recession End?

Posted April 30, 2009 · 0 Comments
The stock market has rallied over the past 5 weeks. Is this the beginning of the new bull market or is this a bear market rally that will be followed by new stock market lows? When do you think this bear market recession will end? Economists often say that the stock market always starts to go up before the “real economy” recovers and often goes up before a recession ends. That is only partially true. read more

Following The Long Term Trends

Posted July 10, 2008 · 0 Comments
I know the FOXHALL “DEFENSIVE STRATEGY” in bear markets is made up of (1) bonds, (2) foreign currency funds to offset the falling U.S. Dollar and (3) oil, energy, metals, mining, agriculture and other commodities and basic materials funds. BUT, OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS COMMODITIES HAVE DECLINED PRECIPITOUSLY. AGRIBUSINESS COMMODITY FUNDS are down this month 6%. STEEL FUNDS are down over 9% and METALS AND MINING FUNDS are down over 12%. It is hurting your FOXHALL performance. I thought commodities were supposed to go up when the stock market was going down. read more

How Will The Decline In Real Estate Effect The Economy?

Posted July 25, 2007 · 7 Comments
I keep reading that the U.S. economy is slowing, partially because of the decline in real estate. How will this effect the stock market over the next few months? As I am writing this commentary, it is Thursday July 26, 2007, and the DOW dropped 311 points today or about 2.26%, because of housing market fears. Just so you know, a 2.26% drop in the market is not near enough of a decline for FOXHALL to implement our “DEFENSIVE” strategy and move out of the stock market and into bonds. The stock markets have reached record highs this month in the DOW and S&P 500 INDEXES. This is simply a short-term correction with a lot of institutional investors taking profits. read more

Are We Heading Into A Recession?

Posted October 10, 2007 · 0 Comments
This week the stock market and the Dow broke through to new record highs. But my clients are stilled worried about an imminent recession. What should I tell them? First, I do not believe there will be a recession either this year or next year. The overall U.S. economy and the global economy are doing too well, at the moment, and since the stock market has always tracked the overall economy in the long run, I believe that the next bear market is distant enough in the future that it is still a good time for stock market investors to be “in the market”! Make no mistake about it, eventually we will have a recession but that will only happen when the OVERALL economy starts to deteriorate. read more

Should The Big Drop In The Dow Be Of Concern?

Posted November 4, 2007 · 0 Comments
Last Thursday the DOW JONES INDEX dropped more than 362 points or 2.6%, its fourth-worst trading day of the year. Should this be a cause of concern? No, this drop was largely the reaction of big institutional investors to the financial services sector, which makes up a large percentage of the DOW. As the WALL STREET JOURNAL said, they were punishing big banks and brokerage firms like Citigroup, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, Smith Barney and Bear Stearns. These big banks and brokerage firms have been widely criticized in the press for lending billions of dollars to hedge funds on margin who were relending money to mortgage companies who were pushing loans to some people who had no jobs, no credit and no prospect of every paying them back. read more

Will The Slowing U.S. Economy Effect Asian Stock Markets?

Posted October 23, 2007 · 0 Comments
If the U.S. economy continues to slow down, will that negatively impact the growth of China and other Asian economies that manufacture and sell so many products to the U.S.? How will Asian stock markets react to a slowing U.S. economy? Remember when you were a kid and watched a magic show. The magician was always trying to get you to look somewhere else while his other “unwatched hand” was pulling a card or a coin out of your ear. Magicians call this “misdirection.” The secret of successful investing is to stay focused and never take your eye off the only thing that really matters: the overall health of the economy. read more

The Economy in 2009

Posted January 15, 2009 · 0 Comments
The Carnage Of 2008 Has Been Nothing Short Of Breathtaking! 2008 was a horrible year. Virtually every stock market asset class crashed simultaneously. The Dow had its worst losing year since 1931 when the Great Depression was in full swing. The S&P 500 Index was down 38.5% in 2008, the worst stock market drop since 1937 and the third worst drop in the history of the US stock market. That easily makes 2008 the nastiest annual decline ever experienced by most current investors. read more

When Will Oil Prices Stop Going Up?

Posted May 16, 2008 · 0 Comments
My clients keep asking me when oil prices will stop going up. What do I tell them? OIL PRICES WILL KEEP GOING UP! As I have mentioned before in the FOXHALL GLOBAL OUTLOOK there are many factors causing oil to go up. First is supply and demand. While we Americans continue to complain about prices, we still consumed more gasoline last year than we did the previous year. China and India are now the second and third largest auto markets in the world and they are consuming record amounts of new gasoline. read more

Why Is Global Investing Important?

Posted May 5, 2008 · 0 Comments
One of my clients asked me why global investing was important. Are there any studies that definitively explain the importance of global diversification in a client’s investment portfolio? YES—GLOBAL DIVERSIFICATION IS A MUST! After your grandmother told you as a child to always “buy low and sell high,” she also probably reminded you “not to put all of your eggs in one basket”—at least that’s what my grandmother used to tell me! That is the underlying timeless wisdom of global diversification. read more

Will the Slowdown In The U.S. Affect Asian Markets

Posted July 10, 2007 · 0 Comments
THE U.S. ECONOMY IS STILL GROWING! First, note that the U.S. economy is doing quite well. While it is not growing as fast as it was in 2003, it is still growing. Barring some international geo-political crisis, the U.S. economy and the U.S. stock market should continue to make gains over the next three years. But to answer your question, how would a U.S. economic downturn affect Asia? The answer is that the continuing rise in Asian domestic demand, more diversification in exports, and a looser monetary policy give Asia some armor against any future U.S slowdown. read more

What Will Be Happening In Asia And Emerging Markets?

Posted January 28, 2008 · 0 Comments
GREETINGS FROM SINGAPORE! A number of people have emailed me regarding the following quote I made in last week’s FOXHALL GLOBAL OUTLOOK: “I believe there will be a significant rally in Asian and emerging markets over the next month and at that time FOXHALL CAPITAL will determine whether to decrease our already reduced holdings in Asian and emerging markets based on the expected U.S. slowdown.” read more

Information That Will Affect Your Foxhall Capital Client's Investment Portfolio's

Posted January 9, 2008 · 0 Comments
GREETINGS FROM SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA! I am writing to you today from Seoul, South Korea. This is the first stop on a trip that is taking me to Beijing and Shanghai, China, Hong Kong, Ho Chi Minh City (Saigon), Vietnam, Singapore, Mumbai (Bombay) and Bangalore, India, London and Paris. I will be meeting with key banks, stock market analysts, economists and government officials in these countries. I will also be giving speeches at the Shanghai, Hong Kong and Saigon Stock Exchanges-so it will be a very busy six weeks. read more

Active Investments And Buy-And-Hold Investments

Posted September 27, 2007 · 0 Comments
How do I explain to my clients, the difference between “ACTIVE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT” and “BUY-AND- HOLD INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT?” An important new academic study, “SECTOR ROTATION AND MONETARY CONDITIONS,” which is slated for publication in the prestigious JOURNAL OF INVESTING early next year, gives new academic confirmation to the FOXHALL investment management strategy of “active investment management.” read more

How Much To Diversify Our Portfolios Outside The U.S. Market?

Posted September 6, 2007 · 0 Comments
Given the recent turmoil in the U.S. stock markets because of the subprime mortgage scandals, how much should an investor diversify their investment portfolios outside of the United States? THE RISK OF JUST INVESTING IN THE U.S. The impact of the so-called “sub-prime mortgage crisis” on the U.S. stock market-remember that sub-prime lending is a very tiny piece of the overall economy-serves to remind us that investing in a single country heightens the volatility and risk EVEN when that one country is the United States! This is why almost every academic study points out that global diversification is the secret to managing risk in any investment portfolio. read more

Are You Moving Portfolios To Money Markets Or Bonds?

Posted July 30, 2007 · 0 Comments
The stock market had a major downturn last week. Have you moved your portfolios to money market funds or bonds? The answer for now is “no”. Last week the DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE ended the week with a two-day loss of more than 500 points. The steep drop was sparked by continuing worries about the health of the mortgage and corporate lending business and weakness in the housing market. When markets are selling off it is sometimes hard to keep focused on the big picture: HOW IS THE OVERALL U.S. ECONOMY DOING? AND THE ANSWER IS FINE. FOCUS ON THE BIG TRENDS. One has to keep these stock market corrections in some perspective. Here is how I look at it: read more

Business Week Article Supports Foxhall's Strategy

Posted July 2, 2007 · 0 Comments
BUSINESS WEEK ARTICLE REINFORCES FOXHALL’S GLOBAL STRATEGY This week BUSINESS WEEK(1) published an article about the well known Princeton University professor and economist, Burton Malkiel. The article reinforces the underlying foundation of FOXHALL CAPITAL’s global investing strategy. Burton Malkiel is most famous for his classic finance book, “A RANDOM WALK DOWN WALL STREET.” In the past, he has been a leading proponent of the “EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS,” which contends that prices of publicly traded assets reflect all publicly available information. “FROM WALL STREET TO THE GREAT WALL” But now in his new book, “FROM WALL STREET TO THE GREAT WALL: HOW INVESTORS CAN PROFIT FROM CHINA’S BOOMING ECONOMY. (W.W. Norton, December 2007) he now sees Asia and specifically China as the greatest investment opportunity in the world today. He says investors are getting a bargain for “the most undervalued currency in the world.” read more

What Is Foxhall's Investment Strategy?

Posted June 19, 2007 · 0 Comments
How do I explain Foxhall Capital’s global investment strategy to my clients? Foxhall Capital employs a GLOBAL MARKET ROTATION investment strategy. As global stock markets rise and fall and economies throughout the world strengthen and weaken, we constantly adjust the mix of global Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and mutual funds that are held in our client’s portfolios. Our GLOBAL MARKETS ROTATION strategy is based on the following principals: read more

Isn't This Trend Applicable In Other Emerging Markets Too?

Posted June 12, 2008 · 0 Comments
In your last Foxhall Global Outlook you talked about how the next big GLOBAL SUPER-CYCLE INVESTMENT TREND was investing in those companies and commodities that will be used by China over the next decade in their trillion dollar infrastructure investment programs. Isn’t this trend applicable in other emerging markets too? I hear many other emerging markets are spending big sums on their own infrastructure development. You are right! Many emerging markets around the globe are flush with U.S. currency reserves. read more

Is Foxhall Ready For The Chinese Market Correction?

Posted June 6, 2007 · 52 Comments
At Foxhall Capital, we never try to anticipate when something will happen in a stock market, we simply follow the market in the direction it is already going and when there is a major correction we will take defensive actions to manage risk in our client’s portfolios. We continue to watch the Chinese markets carefully. read more

The New Bull Market Has Begun!

Posted July 24, 2009 · 24 Comments
As of today, July 24, 2009 Foxhall Capital is switching to its Offensive Investment Strategy for stock markets in the United States, Europe and other Developed Markets and for the Pacific Rim and Emerging Markets. Our proprietary Foxhall Capital Trend Recognition Technology™ indicators have formally reversed this week from a bear market to a bull market. (See Chart 1) These historic trend directional changes only happen four to six times in a decade read more

Managing Investments In A Volatile Market

Posted May 18, 2010 · 1 Comment
Investors hate corrections or any stock market drop. But in the long run it is far more healthy and stable to have a stock market that is running in tandem with the fundamentals of the U.S. economy. read more

Distinguishing The Stock Market From The Underlying U.S. Economy

Posted June 28, 2010 · 65 Comments
It is important to always distinguish the stock market from the underlying U.S. economy. The underlying economy has not changed. It is still growing at a mediocre annual growth of about 3%. read more

Why Foxhall Capital's Risk Management Strategies Are So Important!

Posted July 2, 2010 · 3 Comments
As we end the second quarter of this year, the stock market is still in the process of regressing to the long-term trend of the underlying economy. Based on how overvalued the stock market was before this correction, I believe the stock market may continue to correct for the next few months. This is why Foxhall Captial's risk management strategies are so important! read more

A Review Of the 2010 Stock Market, Foxhall's Performance And Predictions For 2011

Posted January 11, 2011 · 69 Comments
Given the difficulty in managing money while riding on the 2010 stock market roller coaster, I am very pleased that all of Foxhall’s EQUITY strategies produced POSITIVE RETURNS in 2010. read more


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About Paul Dietrich
Paul Dietrich is the Chairman, CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer of Foxhall Capital Management, Inc. (Foxhall).  Foxhall currently manages investments for individuals, mutual funds and private institutions throughout the United States. Paul Dietrich is also a portfolio manager to a publicly traded mutual fund, the Foxhall Global Trends Fund.
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