Paul Dietrich's Global Investing Trends Report
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What Will The Market Do From Now Until The End Of The Year?

Posted October 3, 2007 · 0 Comments
You were right about the stock market going through a typical summer pull-back, since it has now bounced back to its recent record highs in July. What will the stock market do from now until the end of the year? PATIENCE IS ALWAYS A VIRTUE One of the behavioral characteristics of professional investors is an ability to resist getting caught-up in the emotions of the stock market as it reacts to the most current daily drama being spotlighted in the news! Professionals keep their concentration focused like a laser on those specific indicators that actually drive the fundamentals of the stock market over time. read more

Following The Long Term Trends

Posted July 10, 2008 · 0 Comments
I know the FOXHALL “DEFENSIVE STRATEGY” in bear markets is made up of (1) bonds, (2) foreign currency funds to offset the falling U.S. Dollar and (3) oil, energy, metals, mining, agriculture and other commodities and basic materials funds. BUT, OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS COMMODITIES HAVE DECLINED PRECIPITOUSLY. AGRIBUSINESS COMMODITY FUNDS are down this month 6%. STEEL FUNDS are down over 9% and METALS AND MINING FUNDS are down over 12%. It is hurting your FOXHALL performance. I thought commodities were supposed to go up when the stock market was going down. read more

Are We Heading Into A Recession?

Posted October 10, 2007 · 0 Comments
This week the stock market and the Dow broke through to new record highs. But my clients are stilled worried about an imminent recession. What should I tell them? First, I do not believe there will be a recession either this year or next year. The overall U.S. economy and the global economy are doing too well, at the moment, and since the stock market has always tracked the overall economy in the long run, I believe that the next bear market is distant enough in the future that it is still a good time for stock market investors to be “in the market”! Make no mistake about it, eventually we will have a recession but that will only happen when the OVERALL economy starts to deteriorate. read more

How Is The Economy Other Than The Sub-Prime Mess And High Fuel Prices?

Posted November 27, 2007 · 0 Comments
Stock market analysts continue to focus on high oil prices and the bad loans made by big banks and big brokerage companies in the sub-prime lending scandal. How is the rest of the economy doing? Make no mistake about it the economy is growing at a slower rate now than it has over the past five years. The recent stock market “pull-backs” in August and during the past few weeks reflect a stock market that is simply “adjusting” from a “GROWTH BULL MARKET” to a “SLOWER GROWING BULL MARKET.” This is very normal at this stage of the bull market cycle. However, the rest of the economy is doing well and many stock market analysts seem to overstate the importance of high oil prices and the banking crisis. read more

2008 A Year In Review

Posted December 30, 2008 · 1 Comment
2008 Was Not A Great Year. Few tears will be shed at 2008’s passing—at least from an investment perspective. 2008 began with a business slowdown and is ending with the world caught in the grip of the most severe economic recession since the Great Depression. All this is happening in the context of a world in the throes of extraordinary change, and a planet that is morphing into one economy. read more

Will It Make A Difference To The Stock Market If A Democrat or Republican Wins The Presidential Election?

Posted October 30, 2008 · 0 Comments
Does it make a difference to the stock market if a Democrat or Republican wins the Presidential Election next week? I recently saw a study in Forbes Magazine that concluded that Presidential election out-comes don't affect the stock market the way most people expect them to. In this article written by Ken Fisher and published in the May 19, 2008 issue of Forbes Magazine, Fisher answers the question posed above. “We have a long history of elections and S&P 500 returns, and the pattern is pretty clear. read more

China's Super Cycle

Posted August 18, 2008 · 0 Comments
Discovering a potentially lucrative super cycle, Dietrich thinks, is a lot easier than uncovering -- and investing early in -- the next mega-company such as Google. Super cycles reflect long-term trends based on global transformations, demographics, supply and demand pressures. Some examples: health care, because of the aging boomer population; and energy and food, because of swelling demand from emerging economies. read more

When Do You Think Commodities And Asian Markets Will Start Going Up?

Posted September 4, 2008 · 31 Comments
At Foxhall Capital we “follow trends” rather than try to predict short-term stock market ups and downs. People tend to have short memories—In August 2007, oil prices dropped about 20%—just as they have this year after first climbing to new highs. I remember receiving calls from investors asking if they should move their portfolios out of commodities like oil and gold. read more

When Will Oil Prices Stop Going Up?

Posted May 16, 2008 · 0 Comments
My clients keep asking me when oil prices will stop going up. What do I tell them? OIL PRICES WILL KEEP GOING UP! As I have mentioned before in the FOXHALL GLOBAL OUTLOOK there are many factors causing oil to go up. First is supply and demand. While we Americans continue to complain about prices, we still consumed more gasoline last year than we did the previous year. China and India are now the second and third largest auto markets in the world and they are consuming record amounts of new gasoline. read more

Why Are Prices Of Oil Continuing To Go UP?

Posted April 28, 2008 · 1 Comment
Why is the price of oil continuing to go up? There are a number of reasons for high oil prices. The most important is “SUPPLY AND DEMAND” created by the growing consumption of newly developed countries in Asia and Latin America, like China, India, Mexico and Brazil. China is now the second largest car market in the world. Another reason is that oil is priced in “DOLLARS PER BARREL” and when the dollar drops in value, the price of oil automatically goes up, because it takes more dollars to buy the same barrel of oil. read more

What Is Happening To The Market?

Posted January 21, 2008 · 7 Comments
GREETINGS FROM HONG KONG! As all of you know, FOXHALL CAPITAL officially announced at the end of trading on Thursday, January 10, 2008, our FOXHALL CAPITAL LONG-TERM STOCK MARKET DIRECTION INDICATOR triggered a DEFENSIVE STRATEGY which means we are now entering a BEAR MARKET. FOXHALL’S TIMING WAS PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET! read more

Information That Will Affect Your Foxhall Capital Client's Investment Portfolio's

Posted January 9, 2008 · 0 Comments
GREETINGS FROM SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA! I am writing to you today from Seoul, South Korea. This is the first stop on a trip that is taking me to Beijing and Shanghai, China, Hong Kong, Ho Chi Minh City (Saigon), Vietnam, Singapore, Mumbai (Bombay) and Bangalore, India, London and Paris. I will be meeting with key banks, stock market analysts, economists and government officials in these countries. I will also be giving speeches at the Shanghai, Hong Kong and Saigon Stock Exchanges-so it will be a very busy six weeks. read more

How Does Foxhall Determine We Are Entering Into A Bear Market?

Posted November 20, 2007 · 0 Comments
I know you have been warning for several months that the U.S. economy is slowing, but what are the exact “stock market triggers” that FOXHALL CAPITAL uses to determine that the stock market has moved into a bear market or recession? How do these triggers “specifically work” and exactly when will you notify clients that FOXHALL CAPITAL believes we have entered into a bear market or recession and FOXHALL CAPITAL is moving its investment portfolios to it FOXHALL DEFENSIVE INVESTMENT STRATEGY? read more

Active Investments And Buy-And-Hold Investments

Posted September 27, 2007 · 0 Comments
How do I explain to my clients, the difference between “ACTIVE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT” and “BUY-AND- HOLD INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT?” An important new academic study, “SECTOR ROTATION AND MONETARY CONDITIONS,” which is slated for publication in the prestigious JOURNAL OF INVESTING early next year, gives new academic confirmation to the FOXHALL investment management strategy of “active investment management.” read more

Is The Market Going Forward In This Economy?

Posted September 18, 2007 · 0 Comments
Yesterday the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates and the stock market went up strongly. What does this mean in terms of the economy and the stock market going forward? For regular readers of the FOXHALL GLOBAL OUTLOOK, I have mentioned several times over the past six weeks that if the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates the stock market would take off. That is exactly what happened on Tuesday. BIGGEST ONE-DAY MARKET INCREASE IN 5-YEARS read more

Unemployment is Rising- Are We Heading Towards A Recession?

Posted September 11, 2007 · 0 Comments
Last week U.S. unemployment started to rise. Does this mean the economy is starting to slow? Are we in danger of a recession? There was an unexpected drop in U.S. employment for August, but the decline may signal more of a short-term confidence crisis among employers than a significant economic downturn. To be sure, the loss of 4,000 jobs for August reported last Friday-the first drop in four years-will weigh heavily in the Federal Reserve's decision on whether to lower benchmark interest rates (a move which Wall Street now considers a certainty). A loss of confidence could lead to still more job cuts and slower spending. But a timely rate cut would likely repair the damage quickly. If the Federal Reserve does lower interest rates at its meeting on September 18th, EXPECT A BIG JUMP IN THE STOCK MARKET THAT DAY. read more

Do You Think The Stock Markets Will Continue To Go Down?

Posted August 28, 2007 · 0 Comments
The stock market seems to have calmed down this past week. Do you think that will continue? What should I tell my clients? The market had its most stable week in a month last week. The DOW JONES INDEX rose back above 13,300 and finished up 2.29% for the week, the S&P 500 INDEX rose 2.31%, and the NASDAQ added 2.86%. TWO PRINCIPLES FOR INVESTMENT SUCCESS Robert Hagin, the former University of Pennsylvania Wharton School of Finance professor taught that there are really only two principles that someone needs to know and understand in order to be a successful investor. read more

How Does Foxhall Manage Risk With The Current Turmoil In The Middle East?

Posted June 26, 2007 · 0 Comments
I keep reading that a political mishap or an escalation in wars in the Middle East could dramatically drive up oil prices and the stock market would go down. How does FOXHALL CAPITAL manage this type of risk? We believe that every investor in the stock market should always have a portion of their investments in “HARD ASSETS. “ Hard assets are investments in real things like oil, real estate, currencies, raw materials, gold, silver and other precious metals. read more

Foxhall Trend Recognition Technology

Posted May 22, 2009 · 0 Comments
The proprietary Foxhall Trend Recognition Technology© has two very different, but complimentary investment trend recognition strategies that we use to exit the stock market when it is entering a long-term bear market/recession and another methodology to identify new long-term bull markets after a severe bear market. read more

Will The Presidential Election Affect The Economy?

Posted November 7, 2008 · 0 Comments
We are now living through the most serious economic crisis since the Great Depression. Warren Buffett has called this crisis the economic equivalent to Pearl Harbor. The economy clearly affected the presidential race. But how will the election results affect the stock market? It is true that past performance is no indication of future performance, but it’s hard to resist looking back at how the markets have responded to presidential politics. read more

Washington Post-Ask the Experts

Posted July 7, 2008 · 0 Comments
Since 1945, the average bear market has lasted about two years and knocked the S&P 500-stock index down 36 percent. Now is not the time to drink the "BUY AND HOLD" investment strategy Kool-Aid. Be conservative, limit your risk -- and sleep well knowing your investment principal is not going to continue to decline. read more

Preserve, Defend and Protect

Posted May 7, 2010 · 0 Comments
Are the stock market declines over the past two weeks the beginning of a major stock market correction? I have been warning in these Foxhall Global Outlook newsletters since last November that we were historically due for a significant stock market correction. read more

Foxhall Capital’s View On The Debt Ceiling Political Drama

Posted July 19, 2011 · 0 Comments
A number of people have asked me will Foxhall Capital employ any defensive measures, like going to cash if our brave political leaders continue to “play chicken” with the debt ceiling. read more

The Current Status of This Summer’s Stock Market Correction

Posted September 6, 2011 · 0 Comments
As I have mentioned before, in my opinion everything that has caused this summer’s stock market correction has been the result of global political issues—not company fundamentals. We know from history that when the stock market declines because of A REACTION TO POLITICAL ISSUES, the stock market usually bounces back very quickly once those political issues are resolved. read more

Has the Stock Market Hit Bottom Yet? How Long Will It Take to See a Sustained Uptrend in the Stock Market?

Posted September 19, 2011 · 0 Comments
I believe we did hit a bottom several weeks ago, but I also believe we will experience another six to eight weeks of stock market uncertainty until we start seeing a sustained upward swing in the market hopefully in November and December. read more


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About Paul Dietrich
Paul Dietrich is the Chairman, CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer of Foxhall Capital Management, Inc. (Foxhall).  Foxhall currently manages investments for individuals, mutual funds and private institutions throughout the United States. Paul Dietrich is also a portfolio manager to a publicly traded mutual fund, the Foxhall Global Trends Fund.
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