Paul Dietrich's Global Investing Trends Report
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How Will The Decline In Real Estate Effect The Economy?

Posted July 25, 2007 · 7 Comments
I keep reading that the U.S. economy is slowing, partially because of the decline in real estate. How will this effect the stock market over the next few months? As I am writing this commentary, it is Thursday July 26, 2007, and the DOW dropped 311 points today or about 2.26%, because of housing market fears. Just so you know, a 2.26% drop in the market is not near enough of a decline for FOXHALL to implement our “DEFENSIVE” strategy and move out of the stock market and into bonds. The stock markets have reached record highs this month in the DOW and S&P 500 INDEXES. This is simply a short-term correction with a lot of institutional investors taking profits. read more

The Economy in 2009

Posted January 15, 2009 · 0 Comments
The Carnage Of 2008 Has Been Nothing Short Of Breathtaking! 2008 was a horrible year. Virtually every stock market asset class crashed simultaneously. The Dow had its worst losing year since 1931 when the Great Depression was in full swing. The S&P 500 Index was down 38.5% in 2008, the worst stock market drop since 1937 and the third worst drop in the history of the US stock market. That easily makes 2008 the nastiest annual decline ever experienced by most current investors. read more

Why Is Global Investing Important?

Posted May 5, 2008 · 0 Comments
One of my clients asked me why global investing was important. Are there any studies that definitively explain the importance of global diversification in a client’s investment portfolio? YES—GLOBAL DIVERSIFICATION IS A MUST! After your grandmother told you as a child to always “buy low and sell high,” she also probably reminded you “not to put all of your eggs in one basket”—at least that’s what my grandmother used to tell me! That is the underlying timeless wisdom of global diversification. read more

What Will Be Happening In Asia And Emerging Markets?

Posted January 28, 2008 · 0 Comments
GREETINGS FROM SINGAPORE! A number of people have emailed me regarding the following quote I made in last week’s FOXHALL GLOBAL OUTLOOK: “I believe there will be a significant rally in Asian and emerging markets over the next month and at that time FOXHALL CAPITAL will determine whether to decrease our already reduced holdings in Asian and emerging markets based on the expected U.S. slowdown.” read more

How Much To Diversify Our Portfolios Outside The U.S. Market?

Posted September 6, 2007 · 0 Comments
Given the recent turmoil in the U.S. stock markets because of the subprime mortgage scandals, how much should an investor diversify their investment portfolios outside of the United States? THE RISK OF JUST INVESTING IN THE U.S. The impact of the so-called “sub-prime mortgage crisis” on the U.S. stock market-remember that sub-prime lending is a very tiny piece of the overall economy-serves to remind us that investing in a single country heightens the volatility and risk EVEN when that one country is the United States! This is why almost every academic study points out that global diversification is the secret to managing risk in any investment portfolio. read more

Business Week Article Supports Foxhall's Strategy

Posted July 2, 2007 · 0 Comments
BUSINESS WEEK ARTICLE REINFORCES FOXHALL’S GLOBAL STRATEGY This week BUSINESS WEEK(1) published an article about the well known Princeton University professor and economist, Burton Malkiel. The article reinforces the underlying foundation of FOXHALL CAPITAL’s global investing strategy. Burton Malkiel is most famous for his classic finance book, “A RANDOM WALK DOWN WALL STREET.” In the past, he has been a leading proponent of the “EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS,” which contends that prices of publicly traded assets reflect all publicly available information. “FROM WALL STREET TO THE GREAT WALL” But now in his new book, “FROM WALL STREET TO THE GREAT WALL: HOW INVESTORS CAN PROFIT FROM CHINA’S BOOMING ECONOMY. (W.W. Norton, December 2007) he now sees Asia and specifically China as the greatest investment opportunity in the world today. He says investors are getting a bargain for “the most undervalued currency in the world.” read more

Is Foxhall Ready For The Chinese Market Correction?

Posted June 6, 2007 · 52 Comments
At Foxhall Capital, we never try to anticipate when something will happen in a stock market, we simply follow the market in the direction it is already going and when there is a major correction we will take defensive actions to manage risk in our client’s portfolios. We continue to watch the Chinese markets carefully. read more

What Is Happening To The Housing Market?

Posted April 10, 2008 · 1 Comment
Several weeks ago, another FEDERAL RESERVE report stated that the most serious lending abuses in ADJUSTABLE RATES MORTGAGES (ARMs) took place within the last 18 months. Most of those ARMs have not yet triggered their higher rates. The report stated that the worst of the housing foreclosures was still to come and that most of these foreclosures would reach a peak in the second half of 2009 and the first half of 2010. read more

The New Bull Market Has Begun!

Posted July 24, 2009 · 24 Comments
As of today, July 24, 2009 Foxhall Capital is switching to its Offensive Investment Strategy for stock markets in the United States, Europe and other Developed Markets and for the Pacific Rim and Emerging Markets. Our proprietary Foxhall Capital Trend Recognition Technology™ indicators have formally reversed this week from a bear market to a bull market. (See Chart 1) These historic trend directional changes only happen four to six times in a decade read more

Managing Investments In A Volatile Market

Posted May 18, 2010 · 1 Comment
Investors hate corrections or any stock market drop. But in the long run it is far more healthy and stable to have a stock market that is running in tandem with the fundamentals of the U.S. economy. read more

What is the Status of This Summer’s Stock Market Correction?

Posted June 15, 2011 · 8 Comments
Investors have always had very short memories. They forget that the Dow Jones Industrials plunged 13.6% last year in the spring, but the Dow is currently only down a little over 6% below its April 29th peak. At FOXHALL we are trend followers and as trend followers we also track shorter cycles within the overall stock market. read more

Stock Market Update: The Summer Doldrums

Posted June 2, 2011 · 83 Comments
One of the characteristics of the “summer doldrums” is that the stock market tends to go up and down during this period in a side-ways pattern. That is what we are seeing right now. read more

Commodities and the Stock Market Have Been Declining for 10 Days. Is This a New Bear Market or Just a Correction?

Posted May 18, 2011 · 109 Comments
One of the main reasons for the steep correction is that commodity exchanges around the world raised margin requirements four times in 10 days to discourage speculators investing with borrowed money on margin. This forced many leveraged investors out of the market. read more

Just Another Stock Market Correction

Posted August 5, 2011 · 11 Comments
Analyst seem to agree that the decline in the stock market has more to do with a lack of confidence in politicians in the U.S. and Europe, than in the fundamentals of companies trading on the stock market. This is more of a political crisis of confidence than anything else. read more

The Stock Market Roller Coaster Ride Isn't Over Yet!

Posted December 1, 2011 · 1 Comment
Perhaps this type of volatile, sideways market reflects the mediocre economic news from around the globe. Asia and Emerging Markets are slowing, Japan has flat growth, Europe looks to be heading for a recession, and the U.S. is still growing—but at a very slow pace. read more

An Investment Paradox for 2012

Posted March 2, 2012 · 0 Comments
Oscar Wilde once said, "To expect the unexpected shows a thoroughly modern intellect." TO EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED may be the best advice for investors in 2012. read more

5 Long-term Investment Mega-trends That Will Change America & the World!

Posted March 27, 2013 · 0 Comments
As the United States is slowly emerging from what has been called the “Great Recession,” investors need to clearly distinguish the differences between the U.S. economy and the U.S. stock market. They are very different and cannot be thought of in the same way. read more

The First Six Months Of 2013

Posted July 18, 2013 · 0 Comments
Over the past six months, we have seen the U.S. stock market climb to new highs and excellent per­formance. At the same time, Asian and emerging markets, gold and global commodities have severely underperformed. read more

When Do You Think Commodities And Asian Markets Will Start Going Up?

Posted September 4, 2008 · 31 Comments
At Foxhall Capital we “follow trends” rather than try to predict short-term stock market ups and downs. People tend to have short memories—In August 2007, oil prices dropped about 20%—just as they have this year after first climbing to new highs. I remember receiving calls from investors asking if they should move their portfolios out of commodities like oil and gold. read more

Will the Slowdown In The U.S. Affect Asian Markets

Posted July 10, 2007 · 0 Comments
THE U.S. ECONOMY IS STILL GROWING! First, note that the U.S. economy is doing quite well. While it is not growing as fast as it was in 2003, it is still growing. Barring some international geo-political crisis, the U.S. economy and the U.S. stock market should continue to make gains over the next three years. But to answer your question, how would a U.S. economic downturn affect Asia? The answer is that the continuing rise in Asian domestic demand, more diversification in exports, and a looser monetary policy give Asia some armor against any future U.S slowdown. read more

Isn't This Trend Applicable In Other Emerging Markets Too?

Posted June 12, 2008 · 0 Comments
In your last Foxhall Global Outlook you talked about how the next big GLOBAL SUPER-CYCLE INVESTMENT TREND was investing in those companies and commodities that will be used by China over the next decade in their trillion dollar infrastructure investment programs. Isn’t this trend applicable in other emerging markets too? I hear many other emerging markets are spending big sums on their own infrastructure development. You are right! Many emerging markets around the globe are flush with U.S. currency reserves. read more

Is the Summer Stock Market Correction Over?

Posted July 6, 2011 · 16 Comments
Since the stock market started to decline in late April, I have been telling readers of this Foxhall Global Outlook that we were experiencing a normal and healthy stock market correction—and that is what it has turned out to be. read more


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About Paul Dietrich
Paul Dietrich is the Chairman, CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer of Foxhall Capital Management, Inc. (Foxhall).  Foxhall currently manages investments for individuals, mutual funds and private institutions throughout the United States. Paul Dietrich is also a portfolio manager to a publicly traded mutual fund, the Foxhall Global Trends Fund.
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