Paul Dietrich's Global Investing Trends Report
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When Will The Recession End?

Posted April 30, 2009 · 0 Comments
The stock market has rallied over the past 5 weeks. Is this the beginning of the new bull market or is this a bear market rally that will be followed by new stock market lows? When do you think this bear market recession will end? Economists often say that the stock market always starts to go up before the “real economy” recovers and often goes up before a recession ends. That is only partially true. read more

How Will The Decline In Real Estate Effect The Economy?

Posted July 25, 2007 · 7 Comments
I keep reading that the U.S. economy is slowing, partially because of the decline in real estate. How will this effect the stock market over the next few months? As I am writing this commentary, it is Thursday July 26, 2007, and the DOW dropped 311 points today or about 2.26%, because of housing market fears. Just so you know, a 2.26% drop in the market is not near enough of a decline for FOXHALL to implement our “DEFENSIVE” strategy and move out of the stock market and into bonds. The stock markets have reached record highs this month in the DOW and S&P 500 INDEXES. This is simply a short-term correction with a lot of institutional investors taking profits. read more

Are We Heading Into A Recession?

Posted October 10, 2007 · 0 Comments
This week the stock market and the Dow broke through to new record highs. But my clients are stilled worried about an imminent recession. What should I tell them? First, I do not believe there will be a recession either this year or next year. The overall U.S. economy and the global economy are doing too well, at the moment, and since the stock market has always tracked the overall economy in the long run, I believe that the next bear market is distant enough in the future that it is still a good time for stock market investors to be “in the market”! Make no mistake about it, eventually we will have a recession but that will only happen when the OVERALL economy starts to deteriorate. read more

The Foxhall Capital Investment Strategy

Posted January 26, 2009 · 0 Comments
Years ago, one of my college professors in economics said understanding the economy and the stock market is not “rocket science” or “brain surgery.” He said it was simply understanding the long-term bull and bear cycles of the economy and stock market—and then acting appropriately. It’s really just common sense. read more

How Is Foxhall Managing Clients Accounts?

Posted November 13, 2007 · 0 Comments
I know you have been warning for several months that the U.S. economy is slowing, but what are the exact “stock market triggers” that FOXHALL CAPITAL uses to determine that the stock market has moved into a bear market or recession? How do these triggers “specifically work” and exactly when will you notify clients that FOXHALL CAPITAL believes we have entered into a bear market or recession and FOXHALL CAPITAL is moving its investment portfolios to it FOXHALL DEFENSIVE INVESTMENT STRATEGY? read more

When Will Oil Prices Stop Going Up?

Posted May 16, 2008 · 0 Comments
My clients keep asking me when oil prices will stop going up. What do I tell them? OIL PRICES WILL KEEP GOING UP! As I have mentioned before in the FOXHALL GLOBAL OUTLOOK there are many factors causing oil to go up. First is supply and demand. While we Americans continue to complain about prices, we still consumed more gasoline last year than we did the previous year. China and India are now the second and third largest auto markets in the world and they are consuming record amounts of new gasoline. read more

Why Is Global Investing Important?

Posted May 5, 2008 · 0 Comments
One of my clients asked me why global investing was important. Are there any studies that definitively explain the importance of global diversification in a client’s investment portfolio? YES—GLOBAL DIVERSIFICATION IS A MUST! After your grandmother told you as a child to always “buy low and sell high,” she also probably reminded you “not to put all of your eggs in one basket”—at least that’s what my grandmother used to tell me! That is the underlying timeless wisdom of global diversification. read more

How Long Will This Recession And Bear Market Last

Posted April 6, 2008 · 17 Comments
Make no mistake! WE ARE IN A RECESSION and this one could be severe. Don’t believe the TV pundits who tell you this bear market will be over by the fall. If that were to occur, it would be historically unprecedented. Expect this recession/bear market to last most of two years! FOXHALL CAPITAL’S disciplined investment process and proprietary long term market indicator responded to the market shift and has systematically positioned client portfolios in “defensive investments” that have traditionally made money during downturns in the markets. read more

Will the Slowdown In The U.S. Affect Asian Markets

Posted July 10, 2007 · 0 Comments
THE U.S. ECONOMY IS STILL GROWING! First, note that the U.S. economy is doing quite well. While it is not growing as fast as it was in 2003, it is still growing. Barring some international geo-political crisis, the U.S. economy and the U.S. stock market should continue to make gains over the next three years. But to answer your question, how would a U.S. economic downturn affect Asia? The answer is that the continuing rise in Asian domestic demand, more diversification in exports, and a looser monetary policy give Asia some armor against any future U.S slowdown. read more

What Is Happening To The Market?

Posted January 21, 2008 · 7 Comments
GREETINGS FROM HONG KONG! As all of you know, FOXHALL CAPITAL officially announced at the end of trading on Thursday, January 10, 2008, our FOXHALL CAPITAL LONG-TERM STOCK MARKET DIRECTION INDICATOR triggered a DEFENSIVE STRATEGY which means we are now entering a BEAR MARKET. FOXHALL’S TIMING WAS PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET! read more

How Does Foxhall Determine We Are Entering Into A Bear Market?

Posted November 20, 2007 · 0 Comments
I know you have been warning for several months that the U.S. economy is slowing, but what are the exact “stock market triggers” that FOXHALL CAPITAL uses to determine that the stock market has moved into a bear market or recession? How do these triggers “specifically work” and exactly when will you notify clients that FOXHALL CAPITAL believes we have entered into a bear market or recession and FOXHALL CAPITAL is moving its investment portfolios to it FOXHALL DEFENSIVE INVESTMENT STRATEGY? read more

The Market Is Declining- When Does Foxhall Make Adjustments?

Posted August 17, 2007 · 1 Comment
The Stock Market has been declining over the past month. At what point will FOXHALL CAPITAL switch to bonds or money markets? FOXHALL CAPITAL uses a proprietary system with “stop-loss triggers” to determine when the stock market is entering a major correction or a long-term bear market/recession. Normally, FOXHALL CAPITAL does not sell its positions when there is a simple “pull back” in the stock market or a minor correction. An investor almost always loses money when you try to time the market in pull backs and minor corrections. No one knows how to get out at the top and get back in at the bottom. If the market goes right back up, as it tends to do after most minor corrections, you will usually lose money getting in and out, rather than riding it out. read more

Are You Moving Portfolios To Money Markets Or Bonds?

Posted July 30, 2007 · 0 Comments
The stock market had a major downturn last week. Have you moved your portfolios to money market funds or bonds? The answer for now is “no”. Last week the DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE ended the week with a two-day loss of more than 500 points. The steep drop was sparked by continuing worries about the health of the mortgage and corporate lending business and weakness in the housing market. When markets are selling off it is sometimes hard to keep focused on the big picture: HOW IS THE OVERALL U.S. ECONOMY DOING? AND THE ANSWER IS FINE. FOCUS ON THE BIG TRENDS. One has to keep these stock market corrections in some perspective. Here is how I look at it: read more

What Keeps The Market Going Up?

Posted July 17, 2007 · 0 Comments
For months, the business press has been saying the stock market was heading into a bear market. But during the past few trading sessions both the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Index have logged historic record highs. Why is the market going up? THE ECONOMY IS DOING WELL. As I have repeatedly talked about in my weekly newsletters, in the short run, the stock market can often be out of sync with the economy, but in the long run, the stock market always follows the broad economy. This is what determines long-term stock market trends. In the long run, if the economy is basically doing well, the stock market goes up. If the economy is substantially slowing and going into a recession, the stock market will go down following the long-term trend in the economy. That is really all one has to know in order to do well in investing. read more

Business Week Article Supports Foxhall's Strategy

Posted July 2, 2007 · 0 Comments
BUSINESS WEEK ARTICLE REINFORCES FOXHALL’S GLOBAL STRATEGY This week BUSINESS WEEK(1) published an article about the well known Princeton University professor and economist, Burton Malkiel. The article reinforces the underlying foundation of FOXHALL CAPITAL’s global investing strategy. Burton Malkiel is most famous for his classic finance book, “A RANDOM WALK DOWN WALL STREET.” In the past, he has been a leading proponent of the “EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS,” which contends that prices of publicly traded assets reflect all publicly available information. “FROM WALL STREET TO THE GREAT WALL” But now in his new book, “FROM WALL STREET TO THE GREAT WALL: HOW INVESTORS CAN PROFIT FROM CHINA’S BOOMING ECONOMY. (W.W. Norton, December 2007) he now sees Asia and specifically China as the greatest investment opportunity in the world today. He says investors are getting a bargain for “the most undervalued currency in the world.” read more

How Does Foxhall Manage Risk With The Current Turmoil In The Middle East?

Posted June 26, 2007 · 0 Comments
I keep reading that a political mishap or an escalation in wars in the Middle East could dramatically drive up oil prices and the stock market would go down. How does FOXHALL CAPITAL manage this type of risk? We believe that every investor in the stock market should always have a portion of their investments in “HARD ASSETS. “ Hard assets are investments in real things like oil, real estate, currencies, raw materials, gold, silver and other precious metals. read more

The Economy Is Doing Well

Posted June 12, 2007 · 0 Comments
Although it has taken over seven years, the S&P 500 INDEX recently broke through and surpassed its high from the year 2000. However, U.S. stocks took a beating this past week, because-well,-THE ECONOMY IS DOING TOO WELL. Why would there be a sell-off in the stock market if the economy is doing well? I know that doesn’t make any sense to most investors, but this is the reasoning. Most economists and Wall Street insiders thought that slowing corporate earnings, the sub-prime mortgage debt crisis, and slowing real estate and new housing markets would force the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. And lower interest rates are usually good for the stock market. read more

Isn't This Trend Applicable In Other Emerging Markets Too?

Posted June 12, 2008 · 0 Comments
In your last Foxhall Global Outlook you talked about how the next big GLOBAL SUPER-CYCLE INVESTMENT TREND was investing in those companies and commodities that will be used by China over the next decade in their trillion dollar infrastructure investment programs. Isn’t this trend applicable in other emerging markets too? I hear many other emerging markets are spending big sums on their own infrastructure development. You are right! Many emerging markets around the globe are flush with U.S. currency reserves. read more

Is Foxhall Ready For The Chinese Market Correction?

Posted June 6, 2007 · 52 Comments
At Foxhall Capital, we never try to anticipate when something will happen in a stock market, we simply follow the market in the direction it is already going and when there is a major correction we will take defensive actions to manage risk in our client’s portfolios. We continue to watch the Chinese markets carefully. read more

Foxhall Trend Recognition Technology

Posted May 22, 2009 · 0 Comments
The proprietary Foxhall Trend Recognition Technology© has two very different, but complimentary investment trend recognition strategies that we use to exit the stock market when it is entering a long-term bear market/recession and another methodology to identify new long-term bull markets after a severe bear market. read more

Will The Presidential Election Affect The Economy?

Posted November 7, 2008 · 0 Comments
We are now living through the most serious economic crisis since the Great Depression. Warren Buffett has called this crisis the economic equivalent to Pearl Harbor. The economy clearly affected the presidential race. But how will the election results affect the stock market? It is true that past performance is no indication of future performance, but it’s hard to resist looking back at how the markets have responded to presidential politics. read more

Managing Investments In A Volatile Market

Posted May 18, 2010 · 1 Comment
Investors hate corrections or any stock market drop. But in the long run it is far more healthy and stable to have a stock market that is running in tandem with the fundamentals of the U.S. economy. read more

Distinguishing The Stock Market From The Underlying U.S. Economy

Posted June 28, 2010 · 65 Comments
It is important to always distinguish the stock market from the underlying U.S. economy. The underlying economy has not changed. It is still growing at a mediocre annual growth of about 3%. read more

Why Foxhall Capital's Risk Management Strategies Are So Important!

Posted July 2, 2010 · 3 Comments
As we end the second quarter of this year, the stock market is still in the process of regressing to the long-term trend of the underlying economy. Based on how overvalued the stock market was before this correction, I believe the stock market may continue to correct for the next few months. This is why Foxhall Captial's risk management strategies are so important! read more

Stock Market Update: The Summer Doldrums

Posted June 2, 2011 · 83 Comments
One of the characteristics of the “summer doldrums” is that the stock market tends to go up and down during this period in a side-ways pattern. That is what we are seeing right now. read more


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About Paul Dietrich
Paul Dietrich is the Chairman, CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer of Foxhall Capital Management, Inc. (Foxhall).  Foxhall currently manages investments for individuals, mutual funds and private institutions throughout the United States. Paul Dietrich is also a portfolio manager to a publicly traded mutual fund, the Foxhall Global Trends Fund.
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