Paul Dietrich's Global Investing Trends Report
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What Will the U.S. Economy Look Like During the Next Bull Market?

Posted November 2, 2009 · 16 Comments
You said in your last Foxhall Global Outlook that this economic recovery would be different than previous bull markets. Why is that and which investments will do well and which investments should we avoid? As I have said before, this is going to be a unique and uneven recovery. Last week we saw days when the stock market went up in triple digits and then the next day dropped in triple digits. This is not uncommon during the transition from a recession to a new long-term bull market. read more

The Lost Decade

Posted March 31, 2010 · 0 Comments
Since the beginning of this year, 2010, through March 15th, the S&P 500 Index is up only about 3%. Almost every American knows that the U.S. Economy is not very strong. Are we going to be stuck in a sideways stock market? How long do you think that will last? Historically, transition periods going from recessions into bull markets are highly volatile and fraught with possible dangers for investors. read more

Will Gas And Oil Prices Keep Rising?

Posted December 31, 2007 · 0 Comments
My clients keep asking me if oil and gasoline prices are going to continue to rise. Will they ever go back down? In the long run, oil and gas prices will continue to go up and Americans must prepare themselves to spend a higher percentage of their household budgets in the future on gasoline, heating oil and food (more about food in another issue of this newsletter). Oil and gas prices are being driven by two LONG-TERM INVESTING TRENDS. read more

Anything Is Possible

Posted November 16, 2009 · 1 Comment
A number of commentators on television keep saying the economy may go up for a while but then could slip into a new recession early next year. Do you think that is possible? Anything is possible, but it would be historically contrary to almost every recovery since 1950. read more

Trend Following Is The Secret To Successful Investing

Posted September 24, 2009 · 1 Comment
My clients are very grateful that Foxhall Capital protected them from most of the stock market declines over the past year and a half. I know Foxhall went from its defensive investment strategy of largely treasury bonds back into the stock market and its offensive investment strategy on July 24th, but you missed a lot of the stock market run-up from March through July by staying in bonds. How do I explain this to my clients? read more

When Will The Recession End?

Posted April 30, 2009 · 0 Comments
The stock market has rallied over the past 5 weeks. Is this the beginning of the new bull market or is this a bear market rally that will be followed by new stock market lows? When do you think this bear market recession will end? Economists often say that the stock market always starts to go up before the “real economy” recovers and often goes up before a recession ends. That is only partially true. read more

A Forecast For The 21st Century

Posted February 13, 2009 · 1 Comment
Everyone is depressed over the stock market and the economy. You say you follow long-term trends. Give me some good news, what are the long-term trends over the next decade? I do spend a lot of my time focused on trying to discern long-term political, economic and investing trends. Every day I receive by email over 120 pages of analysts reports from all over the world. It usually takes me at least 2 to 3 hours to read and mostly skim through all these reports. read more

How Is The Economy Other Than The Sub-Prime Mess And High Fuel Prices?

Posted November 27, 2007 · 0 Comments
Stock market analysts continue to focus on high oil prices and the bad loans made by big banks and big brokerage companies in the sub-prime lending scandal. How is the rest of the economy doing? Make no mistake about it the economy is growing at a slower rate now than it has over the past five years. The recent stock market “pull-backs” in August and during the past few weeks reflect a stock market that is simply “adjusting” from a “GROWTH BULL MARKET” to a “SLOWER GROWING BULL MARKET.” This is very normal at this stage of the bull market cycle. However, the rest of the economy is doing well and many stock market analysts seem to overstate the importance of high oil prices and the banking crisis. read more

Thanksgiving

Posted November 26, 2008 · 0 Comments
Since Thanksgiving is this week, this past Sunday I sat quietly for a couple of hours on my farm in Virginia and tried to think of all the things I was deeply grateful for over the past year. I thought of my family and friends. I thought of my business partners at Foxhall Capital and our wonderful, hard working employees who make me look far better than I am—to them I am most grateful. read more

Should The Big Drop In The Dow Be Of Concern?

Posted November 4, 2007 · 0 Comments
Last Thursday the DOW JONES INDEX dropped more than 362 points or 2.6%, its fourth-worst trading day of the year. Should this be a cause of concern? No, this drop was largely the reaction of big institutional investors to the financial services sector, which makes up a large percentage of the DOW. As the WALL STREET JOURNAL said, they were punishing big banks and brokerage firms like Citigroup, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, Smith Barney and Bear Stearns. These big banks and brokerage firms have been widely criticized in the press for lending billions of dollars to hedge funds on margin who were relending money to mortgage companies who were pushing loans to some people who had no jobs, no credit and no prospect of every paying them back. read more

Will The Slowing U.S. Economy Effect Asian Stock Markets?

Posted October 23, 2007 · 0 Comments
If the U.S. economy continues to slow down, will that negatively impact the growth of China and other Asian economies that manufacture and sell so many products to the U.S.? How will Asian stock markets react to a slowing U.S. economy? Remember when you were a kid and watched a magic show. The magician was always trying to get you to look somewhere else while his other “unwatched hand” was pulling a card or a coin out of your ear. Magicians call this “misdirection.” The secret of successful investing is to stay focused and never take your eye off the only thing that really matters: the overall health of the economy. read more

Will It Make A Difference To The Stock Market If A Democrat or Republican Wins The Presidential Election?

Posted October 30, 2008 · 0 Comments
Does it make a difference to the stock market if a Democrat or Republican wins the Presidential Election next week? I recently saw a study in Forbes Magazine that concluded that Presidential election out-comes don't affect the stock market the way most people expect them to. In this article written by Ken Fisher and published in the May 19, 2008 issue of Forbes Magazine, Fisher answers the question posed above. “We have a long history of elections and S&P 500 returns, and the pattern is pretty clear. read more

The Economy in 2009

Posted January 15, 2009 · 0 Comments
The Carnage Of 2008 Has Been Nothing Short Of Breathtaking! 2008 was a horrible year. Virtually every stock market asset class crashed simultaneously. The Dow had its worst losing year since 1931 when the Great Depression was in full swing. The S&P 500 Index was down 38.5% in 2008, the worst stock market drop since 1937 and the third worst drop in the history of the US stock market. That easily makes 2008 the nastiest annual decline ever experienced by most current investors. read more

How Does Foxhall Consider Investments?

Posted April 22, 2008 · 0 Comments
One of the ways we consider investments at FOXHALL CAPITAL is by trying to find and invest in long-term trends in the global marketplace. I often call these long-term trends, GLOBAL SUPERCYCLES. Recently, at the WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM in Davos, Switzerland, Herb Meyer gave an important lecture to a very select group of invited global CEOs of major international corporations on some of the KEY GLOBAL TRENDS, unfortunately not often covered in the mainstream media. read more

How Is Foxhall Managing Clients Accounts?

Posted November 13, 2007 · 0 Comments
I know you have been warning for several months that the U.S. economy is slowing, but what are the exact “stock market triggers” that FOXHALL CAPITAL uses to determine that the stock market has moved into a bear market or recession? How do these triggers “specifically work” and exactly when will you notify clients that FOXHALL CAPITAL believes we have entered into a bear market or recession and FOXHALL CAPITAL is moving its investment portfolios to it FOXHALL DEFENSIVE INVESTMENT STRATEGY? read more

When Will Oil Prices Stop Going Up?

Posted May 16, 2008 · 0 Comments
My clients keep asking me when oil prices will stop going up. What do I tell them? OIL PRICES WILL KEEP GOING UP! As I have mentioned before in the FOXHALL GLOBAL OUTLOOK there are many factors causing oil to go up. First is supply and demand. While we Americans continue to complain about prices, we still consumed more gasoline last year than we did the previous year. China and India are now the second and third largest auto markets in the world and they are consuming record amounts of new gasoline. read more

Why Is Global Investing Important?

Posted May 5, 2008 · 0 Comments
One of my clients asked me why global investing was important. Are there any studies that definitively explain the importance of global diversification in a client’s investment portfolio? YES—GLOBAL DIVERSIFICATION IS A MUST! After your grandmother told you as a child to always “buy low and sell high,” she also probably reminded you “not to put all of your eggs in one basket”—at least that’s what my grandmother used to tell me! That is the underlying timeless wisdom of global diversification. read more

Why Are Prices Of Oil Continuing To Go UP?

Posted April 28, 2008 · 1 Comment
Why is the price of oil continuing to go up? There are a number of reasons for high oil prices. The most important is “SUPPLY AND DEMAND” created by the growing consumption of newly developed countries in Asia and Latin America, like China, India, Mexico and Brazil. China is now the second largest car market in the world. Another reason is that oil is priced in “DOLLARS PER BARREL” and when the dollar drops in value, the price of oil automatically goes up, because it takes more dollars to buy the same barrel of oil. read more

Speaker To Help Vail Valley Investors Play Defense

Posted July 11, 2008 · 0 Comments
An article written by Scott N. Miller; EAGLE COUNTY — Paul Dietrich thinks investors will be huddling with the bears for a while yet. With the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard & Poors 500 both down more than 20 percent from their October highs, the stock markets are officially in “bear” territory, after nearly five years of expansion. Dietrich, an economist and the chairman of Foxhall Capital Management, said historically, there’s more drop to come. read more

Americans Have A Lot To Be Thankful For This Independence Day

Posted July 1, 2008 · 0 Comments
As we approach the July 4th holiday, the news couldn’t be gloomier. U.S. and global stock markets continue to decline and are flirting with worldwide recession. The financial sector is in crisis; housing values have fallen to their 2004 levels and are still dropping; the U.S. dollar is in free-fall; we haven’t even begun to see the peak in home foreclosures; unemployment is up; oil prices are outrageous and a box of cereal will cost twice as much by next year. It’s hard to see a silver lining in all this bad news—or even a way out of this mess. read more

Global Trade vs. Protectionism

Posted March 2, 2008 · 0 Comments
Over the past six weeks, in every Asian city I visited I was asked the same question. IF A DEMOCRAT WINS THE PRESIDENCY IN NOVEMBER, WILL AMERICA PERECT TRADE BARRIERS TO STOP OUTSOURCING TO ASIA? Asian government officials, economists and stock market analysts are really worried about this possibility. Asians are watching our elections closely and listening to the debates and their concern is that they are being “SCAPEGOATED” because America is losing manufacturing jobs to Asia. read more

Will the Slowdown In The U.S. Affect Asian Markets

Posted July 10, 2007 · 0 Comments
THE U.S. ECONOMY IS STILL GROWING! First, note that the U.S. economy is doing quite well. While it is not growing as fast as it was in 2003, it is still growing. Barring some international geo-political crisis, the U.S. economy and the U.S. stock market should continue to make gains over the next three years. But to answer your question, how would a U.S. economic downturn affect Asia? The answer is that the continuing rise in Asian domestic demand, more diversification in exports, and a looser monetary policy give Asia some armor against any future U.S slowdown. read more

Is South Korea Rising?

Posted January 29, 2008 · 0 Comments
While the rise of China makes all the news, investors sometimes forget how crucially important South Korea is in Asia’s stunning economic development. During my recent trip to Seoul, South Korea, I visited with a number of that country’s top economists and stock market analysts. Over and over again, I heard that investors throughout the world do not understand just how important South Korea is to Asia’s economic growth. read more

What Will Be Happening In Asia And Emerging Markets?

Posted January 28, 2008 · 0 Comments
GREETINGS FROM SINGAPORE! A number of people have emailed me regarding the following quote I made in last week’s FOXHALL GLOBAL OUTLOOK: “I believe there will be a significant rally in Asian and emerging markets over the next month and at that time FOXHALL CAPITAL will determine whether to decrease our already reduced holdings in Asian and emerging markets based on the expected U.S. slowdown.” read more

Information That Will Affect Your Foxhall Capital Client's Investment Portfolio's

Posted January 9, 2008 · 0 Comments
GREETINGS FROM SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA! I am writing to you today from Seoul, South Korea. This is the first stop on a trip that is taking me to Beijing and Shanghai, China, Hong Kong, Ho Chi Minh City (Saigon), Vietnam, Singapore, Mumbai (Bombay) and Bangalore, India, London and Paris. I will be meeting with key banks, stock market analysts, economists and government officials in these countries. I will also be giving speeches at the Shanghai, Hong Kong and Saigon Stock Exchanges-so it will be a very busy six weeks. read more


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About Paul Dietrich
Paul Dietrich is the Chairman, CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer of Foxhall Capital Management, Inc. (Foxhall).  Foxhall currently manages investments for individuals, mutual funds and private institutions throughout the United States. Paul Dietrich is also a portfolio manager to a publicly traded mutual fund, the Foxhall Global Trends Fund.
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