Paul Dietrich's Global Investing Trends Report
Your search for stock market cycles returned the following results.

The Lost Decade

Posted March 31, 2010 · 0 Comments
Since the beginning of this year, 2010, through March 15th, the S&P 500 Index is up only about 3%. Almost every American knows that the U.S. Economy is not very strong. Are we going to be stuck in a sideways stock market? How long do you think that will last? Historically, transition periods going from recessions into bull markets are highly volatile and fraught with possible dangers for investors. read more

Risk Management

Posted January 19, 2010 · 6 Comments
The primary goal of Foxhall Capital’s investment philosophy and our Offensive-Defensive Investment Strategy is designed to limit and minimize any significant loss in our client’s investment portfolios—especially during historically volatile transition periods coming out of a bear market/recession. read more

Trend Following Is The Secret To Successful Investing

Posted September 24, 2009 · 1 Comment
My clients are very grateful that Foxhall Capital protected them from most of the stock market declines over the past year and a half. I know Foxhall went from its defensive investment strategy of largely treasury bonds back into the stock market and its offensive investment strategy on July 24th, but you missed a lot of the stock market run-up from March through July by staying in bonds. How do I explain this to my clients? read more

When Will The Recession End?

Posted April 30, 2009 · 0 Comments
The stock market has rallied over the past 5 weeks. Is this the beginning of the new bull market or is this a bear market rally that will be followed by new stock market lows? When do you think this bear market recession will end? Economists often say that the stock market always starts to go up before the “real economy” recovers and often goes up before a recession ends. That is only partially true. read more

The Foxhall Capital Investment Strategy

Posted January 26, 2009 · 0 Comments
Years ago, one of my college professors in economics said understanding the economy and the stock market is not “rocket science” or “brain surgery.” He said it was simply understanding the long-term bull and bear cycles of the economy and stock market—and then acting appropriately. It’s really just common sense. read more

Should The Big Drop In The Dow Be Of Concern?

Posted November 4, 2007 · 0 Comments
Last Thursday the DOW JONES INDEX dropped more than 362 points or 2.6%, its fourth-worst trading day of the year. Should this be a cause of concern? No, this drop was largely the reaction of big institutional investors to the financial services sector, which makes up a large percentage of the DOW. As the WALL STREET JOURNAL said, they were punishing big banks and brokerage firms like Citigroup, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, Smith Barney and Bear Stearns. These big banks and brokerage firms have been widely criticized in the press for lending billions of dollars to hedge funds on margin who were relending money to mortgage companies who were pushing loans to some people who had no jobs, no credit and no prospect of every paying them back. read more

Will The Slowing U.S. Economy Effect Asian Stock Markets?

Posted October 23, 2007 · 0 Comments
If the U.S. economy continues to slow down, will that negatively impact the growth of China and other Asian economies that manufacture and sell so many products to the U.S.? How will Asian stock markets react to a slowing U.S. economy? Remember when you were a kid and watched a magic show. The magician was always trying to get you to look somewhere else while his other “unwatched hand” was pulling a card or a coin out of your ear. Magicians call this “misdirection.” The secret of successful investing is to stay focused and never take your eye off the only thing that really matters: the overall health of the economy. read more

The Economy in 2009

Posted January 15, 2009 · 0 Comments
The Carnage Of 2008 Has Been Nothing Short Of Breathtaking! 2008 was a horrible year. Virtually every stock market asset class crashed simultaneously. The Dow had its worst losing year since 1931 when the Great Depression was in full swing. The S&P 500 Index was down 38.5% in 2008, the worst stock market drop since 1937 and the third worst drop in the history of the US stock market. That easily makes 2008 the nastiest annual decline ever experienced by most current investors. read more

When Do You Think Commodities And Asian Markets Will Start Going Up?

Posted September 4, 2008 · 31 Comments
At Foxhall Capital we “follow trends” rather than try to predict short-term stock market ups and downs. People tend to have short memories—In August 2007, oil prices dropped about 20%—just as they have this year after first climbing to new highs. I remember receiving calls from investors asking if they should move their portfolios out of commodities like oil and gold. read more

How Is Foxhall Managing Clients Accounts?

Posted November 13, 2007 · 0 Comments
I know you have been warning for several months that the U.S. economy is slowing, but what are the exact “stock market triggers” that FOXHALL CAPITAL uses to determine that the stock market has moved into a bear market or recession? How do these triggers “specifically work” and exactly when will you notify clients that FOXHALL CAPITAL believes we have entered into a bear market or recession and FOXHALL CAPITAL is moving its investment portfolios to it FOXHALL DEFENSIVE INVESTMENT STRATEGY? read more

How Can Foxhall Be Up When The Asian Stock Market Is Down?

Posted June 5, 2008 · 34 Comments
You are right; almost every Asian stock market is down year-to-date. As of last week, the Dow Jones China Broad Market Index was down over 33% year-to-date. It was down earlier in the year almost 40%. The Honk Kong Index was down over 21% and the Saigon Stock Exchange was down 50%. Chinese Stock Markets are down over 33%. read more

How Long Will This Recession And Bear Market Last

Posted April 6, 2008 · 17 Comments
Make no mistake! WE ARE IN A RECESSION and this one could be severe. Don’t believe the TV pundits who tell you this bear market will be over by the fall. If that were to occur, it would be historically unprecedented. Expect this recession/bear market to last most of two years! FOXHALL CAPITAL’S disciplined investment process and proprietary long term market indicator responded to the market shift and has systematically positioned client portfolios in “defensive investments” that have traditionally made money during downturns in the markets. read more

Speaker To Help Vail Valley Investors Play Defense

Posted July 11, 2008 · 0 Comments
An article written by Scott N. Miller; EAGLE COUNTY — Paul Dietrich thinks investors will be huddling with the bears for a while yet. With the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard & Poors 500 both down more than 20 percent from their October highs, the stock markets are officially in “bear” territory, after nearly five years of expansion. Dietrich, an economist and the chairman of Foxhall Capital Management, said historically, there’s more drop to come. read more

How Severe Will This Recession Be?

Posted February 7, 2008 · 0 Comments
I have received a number of questions regarding the severity of the current bear market and possible recession. Everyone seems worried. With all the wild swings in the U.S. and global markets, many investors and financial planners are asking, "WHAT DO I DO NOW?" I should say that anyone who's asking that question IS NOT a FOXHALL CAPITAL client. read more

Is South Korea Rising?

Posted January 29, 2008 · 0 Comments
While the rise of China makes all the news, investors sometimes forget how crucially important South Korea is in Asia’s stunning economic development. During my recent trip to Seoul, South Korea, I visited with a number of that country’s top economists and stock market analysts. Over and over again, I heard that investors throughout the world do not understand just how important South Korea is to Asia’s economic growth. read more

What Will Be Happening In Asia And Emerging Markets?

Posted January 28, 2008 · 0 Comments
GREETINGS FROM SINGAPORE! A number of people have emailed me regarding the following quote I made in last week’s FOXHALL GLOBAL OUTLOOK: “I believe there will be a significant rally in Asian and emerging markets over the next month and at that time FOXHALL CAPITAL will determine whether to decrease our already reduced holdings in Asian and emerging markets based on the expected U.S. slowdown.” read more

Information That Will Affect Your Foxhall Capital Client's Investment Portfolio's

Posted January 9, 2008 · 0 Comments
GREETINGS FROM SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA! I am writing to you today from Seoul, South Korea. This is the first stop on a trip that is taking me to Beijing and Shanghai, China, Hong Kong, Ho Chi Minh City (Saigon), Vietnam, Singapore, Mumbai (Bombay) and Bangalore, India, London and Paris. I will be meeting with key banks, stock market analysts, economists and government officials in these countries. I will also be giving speeches at the Shanghai, Hong Kong and Saigon Stock Exchanges-so it will be a very busy six weeks. read more

Will The Loan Crisis Have A Negative Impact On The Economy?

Posted August 8, 2007 · 0 Comments
I keep reading that the sub-prime mortgage loan crisis will negatively impact the economy and eventually the U.S. stock market. Is that true? The answer is no! As I have been saying for weeks this is a typical “summer correction” similar to other corrections we have had in each of the past four years during the summer and early fall. I do expect to see continued volatility in the stock markets through October, but after that I expect the market to reach new highs. read more

The Market Is Declining- When Does Foxhall Make Adjustments?

Posted August 17, 2007 · 1 Comment
The Stock Market has been declining over the past month. At what point will FOXHALL CAPITAL switch to bonds or money markets? FOXHALL CAPITAL uses a proprietary system with “stop-loss triggers” to determine when the stock market is entering a major correction or a long-term bear market/recession. Normally, FOXHALL CAPITAL does not sell its positions when there is a simple “pull back” in the stock market or a minor correction. An investor almost always loses money when you try to time the market in pull backs and minor corrections. No one knows how to get out at the top and get back in at the bottom. If the market goes right back up, as it tends to do after most minor corrections, you will usually lose money getting in and out, rather than riding it out. read more

Are You Moving Portfolios To Money Markets Or Bonds?

Posted July 30, 2007 · 0 Comments
The stock market had a major downturn last week. Have you moved your portfolios to money market funds or bonds? The answer for now is “no”. Last week the DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE ended the week with a two-day loss of more than 500 points. The steep drop was sparked by continuing worries about the health of the mortgage and corporate lending business and weakness in the housing market. When markets are selling off it is sometimes hard to keep focused on the big picture: HOW IS THE OVERALL U.S. ECONOMY DOING? AND THE ANSWER IS FINE. FOCUS ON THE BIG TRENDS. One has to keep these stock market corrections in some perspective. Here is how I look at it: read more

What Keeps The Market Going Up?

Posted July 17, 2007 · 0 Comments
For months, the business press has been saying the stock market was heading into a bear market. But during the past few trading sessions both the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Index have logged historic record highs. Why is the market going up? THE ECONOMY IS DOING WELL. As I have repeatedly talked about in my weekly newsletters, in the short run, the stock market can often be out of sync with the economy, but in the long run, the stock market always follows the broad economy. This is what determines long-term stock market trends. In the long run, if the economy is basically doing well, the stock market goes up. If the economy is substantially slowing and going into a recession, the stock market will go down following the long-term trend in the economy. That is really all one has to know in order to do well in investing. read more

Business Week Article Supports Foxhall's Strategy

Posted July 2, 2007 · 0 Comments
BUSINESS WEEK ARTICLE REINFORCES FOXHALL’S GLOBAL STRATEGY This week BUSINESS WEEK(1) published an article about the well known Princeton University professor and economist, Burton Malkiel. The article reinforces the underlying foundation of FOXHALL CAPITAL’s global investing strategy. Burton Malkiel is most famous for his classic finance book, “A RANDOM WALK DOWN WALL STREET.” In the past, he has been a leading proponent of the “EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS,” which contends that prices of publicly traded assets reflect all publicly available information. “FROM WALL STREET TO THE GREAT WALL” But now in his new book, “FROM WALL STREET TO THE GREAT WALL: HOW INVESTORS CAN PROFIT FROM CHINA’S BOOMING ECONOMY. (W.W. Norton, December 2007) he now sees Asia and specifically China as the greatest investment opportunity in the world today. He says investors are getting a bargain for “the most undervalued currency in the world.” read more

What Is Happening With Banks And How Does It Affect Our Investments?

Posted September 16, 2008 · 0 Comments
We saw the Dow Index drop 500 points in one day this week. What is happening with the banks and how does that affect our investments? First, all of the Foxhall Capital portfolios are almost exclusively invested in U.S. government treasury bonds and money markets. The bonds are fully guaranteed by the US Government. Even our Foxhall Capital individual stock and bond accounts are now fully invested in U.S. government bonds and money markets. read more

What Is Happening To The Housing Market?

Posted April 10, 2008 · 1 Comment
Several weeks ago, another FEDERAL RESERVE report stated that the most serious lending abuses in ADJUSTABLE RATES MORTGAGES (ARMs) took place within the last 18 months. Most of those ARMs have not yet triggered their higher rates. The report stated that the worst of the housing foreclosures was still to come and that most of these foreclosures would reach a peak in the second half of 2009 and the first half of 2010. read more

The New Bull Market Has Begun!

Posted July 24, 2009 · 24 Comments
As of today, July 24, 2009 Foxhall Capital is switching to its Offensive Investment Strategy for stock markets in the United States, Europe and other Developed Markets and for the Pacific Rim and Emerging Markets. Our proprietary Foxhall Capital Trend Recognition Technology™ indicators have formally reversed this week from a bear market to a bull market. (See Chart 1) These historic trend directional changes only happen four to six times in a decade read more


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About Paul Dietrich
Paul Dietrich is the Chairman, CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer of Foxhall Capital Management, Inc. (Foxhall).  Foxhall currently manages investments for individuals, mutual funds and private institutions throughout the United States. Paul Dietrich is also a portfolio manager to a publicly traded mutual fund, the Foxhall Global Trends Fund.
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