Paul Dietrich's Global Investing Trends Report
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What Will The Market Do From Now Until The End Of The Year?

Posted October 3, 2007 · 0 Comments
You were right about the stock market going through a typical summer pull-back, since it has now bounced back to its recent record highs in July. What will the stock market do from now until the end of the year? PATIENCE IS ALWAYS A VIRTUE One of the behavioral characteristics of professional investors is an ability to resist getting caught-up in the emotions of the stock market as it reacts to the most current daily drama being spotlighted in the news! Professionals keep their concentration focused like a laser on those specific indicators that actually drive the fundamentals of the stock market over time. read more

Trend Following Is The Secret To Successful Investing

Posted September 24, 2009 · 1 Comment
My clients are very grateful that Foxhall Capital protected them from most of the stock market declines over the past year and a half. I know Foxhall went from its defensive investment strategy of largely treasury bonds back into the stock market and its offensive investment strategy on July 24th, but you missed a lot of the stock market run-up from March through July by staying in bonds. How do I explain this to my clients? read more

How Will The Decline In Real Estate Effect The Economy?

Posted July 25, 2007 · 7 Comments
I keep reading that the U.S. economy is slowing, partially because of the decline in real estate. How will this effect the stock market over the next few months? As I am writing this commentary, it is Thursday July 26, 2007, and the DOW dropped 311 points today or about 2.26%, because of housing market fears. Just so you know, a 2.26% drop in the market is not near enough of a decline for FOXHALL to implement our “DEFENSIVE” strategy and move out of the stock market and into bonds. The stock markets have reached record highs this month in the DOW and S&P 500 INDEXES. This is simply a short-term correction with a lot of institutional investors taking profits. read more

How Is The Economy Other Than The Sub-Prime Mess And High Fuel Prices?

Posted November 27, 2007 · 0 Comments
Stock market analysts continue to focus on high oil prices and the bad loans made by big banks and big brokerage companies in the sub-prime lending scandal. How is the rest of the economy doing? Make no mistake about it the economy is growing at a slower rate now than it has over the past five years. The recent stock market “pull-backs” in August and during the past few weeks reflect a stock market that is simply “adjusting” from a “GROWTH BULL MARKET” to a “SLOWER GROWING BULL MARKET.” This is very normal at this stage of the bull market cycle. However, the rest of the economy is doing well and many stock market analysts seem to overstate the importance of high oil prices and the banking crisis. read more

2008 A Year In Review

Posted December 30, 2008 · 1 Comment
2008 Was Not A Great Year. Few tears will be shed at 2008’s passing—at least from an investment perspective. 2008 began with a business slowdown and is ending with the world caught in the grip of the most severe economic recession since the Great Depression. All this is happening in the context of a world in the throes of extraordinary change, and a planet that is morphing into one economy. read more

Should The Big Drop In The Dow Be Of Concern?

Posted November 4, 2007 · 0 Comments
Last Thursday the DOW JONES INDEX dropped more than 362 points or 2.6%, its fourth-worst trading day of the year. Should this be a cause of concern? No, this drop was largely the reaction of big institutional investors to the financial services sector, which makes up a large percentage of the DOW. As the WALL STREET JOURNAL said, they were punishing big banks and brokerage firms like Citigroup, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, Smith Barney and Bear Stearns. These big banks and brokerage firms have been widely criticized in the press for lending billions of dollars to hedge funds on margin who were relending money to mortgage companies who were pushing loans to some people who had no jobs, no credit and no prospect of every paying them back. read more

Will The Slowing U.S. Economy Effect Asian Stock Markets?

Posted October 23, 2007 · 0 Comments
If the U.S. economy continues to slow down, will that negatively impact the growth of China and other Asian economies that manufacture and sell so many products to the U.S.? How will Asian stock markets react to a slowing U.S. economy? Remember when you were a kid and watched a magic show. The magician was always trying to get you to look somewhere else while his other “unwatched hand” was pulling a card or a coin out of your ear. Magicians call this “misdirection.” The secret of successful investing is to stay focused and never take your eye off the only thing that really matters: the overall health of the economy. read more

Will It Make A Difference To The Stock Market If A Democrat or Republican Wins The Presidential Election?

Posted October 30, 2008 · 0 Comments
Does it make a difference to the stock market if a Democrat or Republican wins the Presidential Election next week? I recently saw a study in Forbes Magazine that concluded that Presidential election out-comes don't affect the stock market the way most people expect them to. In this article written by Ken Fisher and published in the May 19, 2008 issue of Forbes Magazine, Fisher answers the question posed above. “We have a long history of elections and S&P 500 returns, and the pattern is pretty clear. read more

When Do You Think Commodities And Asian Markets Will Start Going Up?

Posted September 4, 2008 · 31 Comments
At Foxhall Capital we “follow trends” rather than try to predict short-term stock market ups and downs. People tend to have short memories—In August 2007, oil prices dropped about 20%—just as they have this year after first climbing to new highs. I remember receiving calls from investors asking if they should move their portfolios out of commodities like oil and gold. read more

Why Is Global Investing Important?

Posted May 5, 2008 · 0 Comments
One of my clients asked me why global investing was important. Are there any studies that definitively explain the importance of global diversification in a client’s investment portfolio? YES—GLOBAL DIVERSIFICATION IS A MUST! After your grandmother told you as a child to always “buy low and sell high,” she also probably reminded you “not to put all of your eggs in one basket”—at least that’s what my grandmother used to tell me! That is the underlying timeless wisdom of global diversification. read more

Why Are Prices Of Oil Continuing To Go UP?

Posted April 28, 2008 · 1 Comment
Why is the price of oil continuing to go up? There are a number of reasons for high oil prices. The most important is “SUPPLY AND DEMAND” created by the growing consumption of newly developed countries in Asia and Latin America, like China, India, Mexico and Brazil. China is now the second largest car market in the world. Another reason is that oil is priced in “DOLLARS PER BARREL” and when the dollar drops in value, the price of oil automatically goes up, because it takes more dollars to buy the same barrel of oil. read more

How Can Foxhall Be Up When The Asian Stock Market Is Down?

Posted June 5, 2008 · 34 Comments
You are right; almost every Asian stock market is down year-to-date. As of last week, the Dow Jones China Broad Market Index was down over 33% year-to-date. It was down earlier in the year almost 40%. The Honk Kong Index was down over 21% and the Saigon Stock Exchange was down 50%. Chinese Stock Markets are down over 33%. read more

Speaker To Help Vail Valley Investors Play Defense

Posted July 11, 2008 · 0 Comments
An article written by Scott N. Miller; EAGLE COUNTY — Paul Dietrich thinks investors will be huddling with the bears for a while yet. With the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard & Poors 500 both down more than 20 percent from their October highs, the stock markets are officially in “bear” territory, after nearly five years of expansion. Dietrich, an economist and the chairman of Foxhall Capital Management, said historically, there’s more drop to come. read more

Will the Slowdown In The U.S. Affect Asian Markets

Posted July 10, 2007 · 0 Comments
THE U.S. ECONOMY IS STILL GROWING! First, note that the U.S. economy is doing quite well. While it is not growing as fast as it was in 2003, it is still growing. Barring some international geo-political crisis, the U.S. economy and the U.S. stock market should continue to make gains over the next three years. But to answer your question, how would a U.S. economic downturn affect Asia? The answer is that the continuing rise in Asian domestic demand, more diversification in exports, and a looser monetary policy give Asia some armor against any future U.S slowdown. read more

How Severe Will This Recession Be?

Posted February 7, 2008 · 0 Comments
I have received a number of questions regarding the severity of the current bear market and possible recession. Everyone seems worried. With all the wild swings in the U.S. and global markets, many investors and financial planners are asking, "WHAT DO I DO NOW?" I should say that anyone who's asking that question IS NOT a FOXHALL CAPITAL client. read more

Is South Korea Rising?

Posted January 29, 2008 · 0 Comments
While the rise of China makes all the news, investors sometimes forget how crucially important South Korea is in Asia’s stunning economic development. During my recent trip to Seoul, South Korea, I visited with a number of that country’s top economists and stock market analysts. Over and over again, I heard that investors throughout the world do not understand just how important South Korea is to Asia’s economic growth. read more

Active Investments And Buy-And-Hold Investments

Posted September 27, 2007 · 0 Comments
How do I explain to my clients, the difference between “ACTIVE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT” and “BUY-AND- HOLD INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT?” An important new academic study, “SECTOR ROTATION AND MONETARY CONDITIONS,” which is slated for publication in the prestigious JOURNAL OF INVESTING early next year, gives new academic confirmation to the FOXHALL investment management strategy of “active investment management.” read more

Is The Market Going Forward In This Economy?

Posted September 18, 2007 · 0 Comments
Yesterday the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates and the stock market went up strongly. What does this mean in terms of the economy and the stock market going forward? For regular readers of the FOXHALL GLOBAL OUTLOOK, I have mentioned several times over the past six weeks that if the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates the stock market would take off. That is exactly what happened on Tuesday. BIGGEST ONE-DAY MARKET INCREASE IN 5-YEARS read more

Unemployment is Rising- Are We Heading Towards A Recession?

Posted September 11, 2007 · 0 Comments
Last week U.S. unemployment started to rise. Does this mean the economy is starting to slow? Are we in danger of a recession? There was an unexpected drop in U.S. employment for August, but the decline may signal more of a short-term confidence crisis among employers than a significant economic downturn. To be sure, the loss of 4,000 jobs for August reported last Friday-the first drop in four years-will weigh heavily in the Federal Reserve's decision on whether to lower benchmark interest rates (a move which Wall Street now considers a certainty). A loss of confidence could lead to still more job cuts and slower spending. But a timely rate cut would likely repair the damage quickly. If the Federal Reserve does lower interest rates at its meeting on September 18th, EXPECT A BIG JUMP IN THE STOCK MARKET THAT DAY. read more

Do You Think The Stock Markets Will Continue To Go Down?

Posted August 28, 2007 · 0 Comments
The stock market seems to have calmed down this past week. Do you think that will continue? What should I tell my clients? The market had its most stable week in a month last week. The DOW JONES INDEX rose back above 13,300 and finished up 2.29% for the week, the S&P 500 INDEX rose 2.31%, and the NASDAQ added 2.86%. TWO PRINCIPLES FOR INVESTMENT SUCCESS Robert Hagin, the former University of Pennsylvania Wharton School of Finance professor taught that there are really only two principles that someone needs to know and understand in order to be a successful investor. read more

Will The Loan Crisis Have A Negative Impact On The Economy?

Posted August 8, 2007 · 0 Comments
I keep reading that the sub-prime mortgage loan crisis will negatively impact the economy and eventually the U.S. stock market. Is that true? The answer is no! As I have been saying for weeks this is a typical “summer correction” similar to other corrections we have had in each of the past four years during the summer and early fall. I do expect to see continued volatility in the stock markets through October, but after that I expect the market to reach new highs. read more

Business Week Article Supports Foxhall's Strategy

Posted July 2, 2007 · 0 Comments
BUSINESS WEEK ARTICLE REINFORCES FOXHALL’S GLOBAL STRATEGY This week BUSINESS WEEK(1) published an article about the well known Princeton University professor and economist, Burton Malkiel. The article reinforces the underlying foundation of FOXHALL CAPITAL’s global investing strategy. Burton Malkiel is most famous for his classic finance book, “A RANDOM WALK DOWN WALL STREET.” In the past, he has been a leading proponent of the “EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS,” which contends that prices of publicly traded assets reflect all publicly available information. “FROM WALL STREET TO THE GREAT WALL” But now in his new book, “FROM WALL STREET TO THE GREAT WALL: HOW INVESTORS CAN PROFIT FROM CHINA’S BOOMING ECONOMY. (W.W. Norton, December 2007) he now sees Asia and specifically China as the greatest investment opportunity in the world today. He says investors are getting a bargain for “the most undervalued currency in the world.” read more

What Is Happening With Banks And How Does It Affect Our Investments?

Posted September 16, 2008 · 0 Comments
We saw the Dow Index drop 500 points in one day this week. What is happening with the banks and how does that affect our investments? First, all of the Foxhall Capital portfolios are almost exclusively invested in U.S. government treasury bonds and money markets. The bonds are fully guaranteed by the US Government. Even our Foxhall Capital individual stock and bond accounts are now fully invested in U.S. government bonds and money markets. read more

The Economy Is Doing Well

Posted June 12, 2007 · 0 Comments
Although it has taken over seven years, the S&P 500 INDEX recently broke through and surpassed its high from the year 2000. However, U.S. stocks took a beating this past week, because-well,-THE ECONOMY IS DOING TOO WELL. Why would there be a sell-off in the stock market if the economy is doing well? I know that doesn’t make any sense to most investors, but this is the reasoning. Most economists and Wall Street insiders thought that slowing corporate earnings, the sub-prime mortgage debt crisis, and slowing real estate and new housing markets would force the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. And lower interest rates are usually good for the stock market. read more

Is Foxhall Ready For The Chinese Market Correction?

Posted June 6, 2007 · 52 Comments
At Foxhall Capital, we never try to anticipate when something will happen in a stock market, we simply follow the market in the direction it is already going and when there is a major correction we will take defensive actions to manage risk in our client’s portfolios. We continue to watch the Chinese markets carefully. read more


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About Paul Dietrich
Paul Dietrich is the Chairman, CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer of Foxhall Capital Management, Inc. (Foxhall).  Foxhall currently manages investments for individuals, mutual funds and private institutions throughout the United States. Paul Dietrich is also a portfolio manager to a publicly traded mutual fund, the Foxhall Global Trends Fund.
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