Paul Dietrich's Global Investing Trends Report
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Anything Is Possible

Posted November 16, 2009 · 1 Comment
A number of commentators on television keep saying the economy may go up for a while but then could slip into a new recession early next year. Do you think that is possible? Anything is possible, but it would be historically contrary to almost every recovery since 1950. read more

How Will The Decline In Real Estate Effect The Economy?

Posted July 25, 2007 · 7 Comments
I keep reading that the U.S. economy is slowing, partially because of the decline in real estate. How will this effect the stock market over the next few months? As I am writing this commentary, it is Thursday July 26, 2007, and the DOW dropped 311 points today or about 2.26%, because of housing market fears. Just so you know, a 2.26% drop in the market is not near enough of a decline for FOXHALL to implement our “DEFENSIVE” strategy and move out of the stock market and into bonds. The stock markets have reached record highs this month in the DOW and S&P 500 INDEXES. This is simply a short-term correction with a lot of institutional investors taking profits. read more

Are We Heading Into A Recession?

Posted October 10, 2007 · 0 Comments
This week the stock market and the Dow broke through to new record highs. But my clients are stilled worried about an imminent recession. What should I tell them? First, I do not believe there will be a recession either this year or next year. The overall U.S. economy and the global economy are doing too well, at the moment, and since the stock market has always tracked the overall economy in the long run, I believe that the next bear market is distant enough in the future that it is still a good time for stock market investors to be “in the market”! Make no mistake about it, eventually we will have a recession but that will only happen when the OVERALL economy starts to deteriorate. read more

How Is The Economy Other Than The Sub-Prime Mess And High Fuel Prices?

Posted November 27, 2007 · 0 Comments
Stock market analysts continue to focus on high oil prices and the bad loans made by big banks and big brokerage companies in the sub-prime lending scandal. How is the rest of the economy doing? Make no mistake about it the economy is growing at a slower rate now than it has over the past five years. The recent stock market “pull-backs” in August and during the past few weeks reflect a stock market that is simply “adjusting” from a “GROWTH BULL MARKET” to a “SLOWER GROWING BULL MARKET.” This is very normal at this stage of the bull market cycle. However, the rest of the economy is doing well and many stock market analysts seem to overstate the importance of high oil prices and the banking crisis. read more

Will The Slowing U.S. Economy Effect Asian Stock Markets?

Posted October 23, 2007 · 0 Comments
If the U.S. economy continues to slow down, will that negatively impact the growth of China and other Asian economies that manufacture and sell so many products to the U.S.? How will Asian stock markets react to a slowing U.S. economy? Remember when you were a kid and watched a magic show. The magician was always trying to get you to look somewhere else while his other “unwatched hand” was pulling a card or a coin out of your ear. Magicians call this “misdirection.” The secret of successful investing is to stay focused and never take your eye off the only thing that really matters: the overall health of the economy. read more

How Long Will This Recession And Bear Market Last

Posted April 6, 2008 · 17 Comments
Make no mistake! WE ARE IN A RECESSION and this one could be severe. Don’t believe the TV pundits who tell you this bear market will be over by the fall. If that were to occur, it would be historically unprecedented. Expect this recession/bear market to last most of two years! FOXHALL CAPITAL’S disciplined investment process and proprietary long term market indicator responded to the market shift and has systematically positioned client portfolios in “defensive investments” that have traditionally made money during downturns in the markets. read more

Will the Slowdown In The U.S. Affect Asian Markets

Posted July 10, 2007 · 0 Comments
THE U.S. ECONOMY IS STILL GROWING! First, note that the U.S. economy is doing quite well. While it is not growing as fast as it was in 2003, it is still growing. Barring some international geo-political crisis, the U.S. economy and the U.S. stock market should continue to make gains over the next three years. But to answer your question, how would a U.S. economic downturn affect Asia? The answer is that the continuing rise in Asian domestic demand, more diversification in exports, and a looser monetary policy give Asia some armor against any future U.S slowdown. read more

How Severe Will This Recession Be?

Posted February 7, 2008 · 0 Comments
I have received a number of questions regarding the severity of the current bear market and possible recession. Everyone seems worried. With all the wild swings in the U.S. and global markets, many investors and financial planners are asking, "WHAT DO I DO NOW?" I should say that anyone who's asking that question IS NOT a FOXHALL CAPITAL client. read more

What Is Happening To The Market?

Posted January 21, 2008 · 7 Comments
GREETINGS FROM HONG KONG! As all of you know, FOXHALL CAPITAL officially announced at the end of trading on Thursday, January 10, 2008, our FOXHALL CAPITAL LONG-TERM STOCK MARKET DIRECTION INDICATOR triggered a DEFENSIVE STRATEGY which means we are now entering a BEAR MARKET. FOXHALL’S TIMING WAS PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET! read more

Information That Will Affect Your Foxhall Capital Client's Investment Portfolio's

Posted January 9, 2008 · 0 Comments
GREETINGS FROM SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA! I am writing to you today from Seoul, South Korea. This is the first stop on a trip that is taking me to Beijing and Shanghai, China, Hong Kong, Ho Chi Minh City (Saigon), Vietnam, Singapore, Mumbai (Bombay) and Bangalore, India, London and Paris. I will be meeting with key banks, stock market analysts, economists and government officials in these countries. I will also be giving speeches at the Shanghai, Hong Kong and Saigon Stock Exchanges-so it will be a very busy six weeks. read more

Unemployment is Rising- Are We Heading Towards A Recession?

Posted September 11, 2007 · 0 Comments
Last week U.S. unemployment started to rise. Does this mean the economy is starting to slow? Are we in danger of a recession? There was an unexpected drop in U.S. employment for August, but the decline may signal more of a short-term confidence crisis among employers than a significant economic downturn. To be sure, the loss of 4,000 jobs for August reported last Friday-the first drop in four years-will weigh heavily in the Federal Reserve's decision on whether to lower benchmark interest rates (a move which Wall Street now considers a certainty). A loss of confidence could lead to still more job cuts and slower spending. But a timely rate cut would likely repair the damage quickly. If the Federal Reserve does lower interest rates at its meeting on September 18th, EXPECT A BIG JUMP IN THE STOCK MARKET THAT DAY. read more

Do You Think The Stock Markets Will Continue To Go Down?

Posted August 28, 2007 · 0 Comments
The stock market seems to have calmed down this past week. Do you think that will continue? What should I tell my clients? The market had its most stable week in a month last week. The DOW JONES INDEX rose back above 13,300 and finished up 2.29% for the week, the S&P 500 INDEX rose 2.31%, and the NASDAQ added 2.86%. TWO PRINCIPLES FOR INVESTMENT SUCCESS Robert Hagin, the former University of Pennsylvania Wharton School of Finance professor taught that there are really only two principles that someone needs to know and understand in order to be a successful investor. read more

The Market Is In Turmoil- Is This Different From A Normal Pull Back?

Posted August 23, 2007 · 0 Comments
Given the recent market turmoil, is this just a typical summer pull back or has there been a fundamental change in the economy? After several days of gains earlier this week, the large swings in the market have begun to settle down as I predicted last week. However….Expect the volatility to return periodically! The markets will not fully understand the banks exposure to the sub-prime lending crisis until the release of third quarter reports by the hedge funds. Once the markets have adjusted to those reports, the markets are likely to rebound and I believe we may see record highs for the DOW and S&P 500 INDEX by the end of the year. THIS WAS A SHORT-TERM MARKET PULL-BACK CAUSED BY HEDGE FUNDS read more

Will The Loan Crisis Have A Negative Impact On The Economy?

Posted August 8, 2007 · 0 Comments
I keep reading that the sub-prime mortgage loan crisis will negatively impact the economy and eventually the U.S. stock market. Is that true? The answer is no! As I have been saying for weeks this is a typical “summer correction” similar to other corrections we have had in each of the past four years during the summer and early fall. I do expect to see continued volatility in the stock markets through October, but after that I expect the market to reach new highs. read more

Are You Moving Portfolios To Money Markets Or Bonds?

Posted July 30, 2007 · 0 Comments
The stock market had a major downturn last week. Have you moved your portfolios to money market funds or bonds? The answer for now is “no”. Last week the DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE ended the week with a two-day loss of more than 500 points. The steep drop was sparked by continuing worries about the health of the mortgage and corporate lending business and weakness in the housing market. When markets are selling off it is sometimes hard to keep focused on the big picture: HOW IS THE OVERALL U.S. ECONOMY DOING? AND THE ANSWER IS FINE. FOCUS ON THE BIG TRENDS. One has to keep these stock market corrections in some perspective. Here is how I look at it: read more

What Keeps The Market Going Up?

Posted July 17, 2007 · 0 Comments
For months, the business press has been saying the stock market was heading into a bear market. But during the past few trading sessions both the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Index have logged historic record highs. Why is the market going up? THE ECONOMY IS DOING WELL. As I have repeatedly talked about in my weekly newsletters, in the short run, the stock market can often be out of sync with the economy, but in the long run, the stock market always follows the broad economy. This is what determines long-term stock market trends. In the long run, if the economy is basically doing well, the stock market goes up. If the economy is substantially slowing and going into a recession, the stock market will go down following the long-term trend in the economy. That is really all one has to know in order to do well in investing. read more

What Is Happening With Banks And How Does It Affect Our Investments?

Posted September 16, 2008 · 0 Comments
We saw the Dow Index drop 500 points in one day this week. What is happening with the banks and how does that affect our investments? First, all of the Foxhall Capital portfolios are almost exclusively invested in U.S. government treasury bonds and money markets. The bonds are fully guaranteed by the US Government. Even our Foxhall Capital individual stock and bond accounts are now fully invested in U.S. government bonds and money markets. read more

The Economy Is Doing Well

Posted June 12, 2007 · 0 Comments
Although it has taken over seven years, the S&P 500 INDEX recently broke through and surpassed its high from the year 2000. However, U.S. stocks took a beating this past week, because-well,-THE ECONOMY IS DOING TOO WELL. Why would there be a sell-off in the stock market if the economy is doing well? I know that doesn’t make any sense to most investors, but this is the reasoning. Most economists and Wall Street insiders thought that slowing corporate earnings, the sub-prime mortgage debt crisis, and slowing real estate and new housing markets would force the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. And lower interest rates are usually good for the stock market. read more

Preserve, Defend and Protect

Posted May 7, 2010 · 0 Comments
Are the stock market declines over the past two weeks the beginning of a major stock market correction? I have been warning in these Foxhall Global Outlook newsletters since last November that we were historically due for a significant stock market correction. read more

Managing Investments In A Volatile Market

Posted May 18, 2010 · 1 Comment
Investors hate corrections or any stock market drop. But in the long run it is far more healthy and stable to have a stock market that is running in tandem with the fundamentals of the U.S. economy. read more

What Are the Long-term Consequences to Investors Here in the United States of the Tsunami and Nuclear Power Crisis in Japan and the Uprisings in Libya and Through-out the Middle East?

Posted March 16, 2011 · 43 Comments
Most economists in Japan believe, the efforts to rebuild homes, businesses and highways should offset any dampening effects and possible even spark economic growth. read more

Where Does The Stock Market Go From Here?

Posted August 9, 2011 · 0 Comments
While the S&P 500 has loss a little over 16% since July 22, 2011, this is still technically a correction. We have to remember that a year ago the stock market dropped over 13.5% in March of 2010 and within a few months recovered and went on to new highs. read more

Five Big Risks Hang over the Economy in 2012

Posted January 3, 2012 · 1 Comment
WE ALL HOPE 2012 WILL BE A BETTER AND EASIER YEAR FOR INVESTORS! Unfortunately, many of the same risks that plagued us in 2011 will be with us, at least for the first six months of the new year. read more

The First Six Months Of 2013

Posted July 18, 2013 · 0 Comments
Over the past six months, we have seen the U.S. stock market climb to new highs and excellent per­formance. At the same time, Asian and emerging markets, gold and global commodities have severely underperformed. read more

Is Foxhall Ready For The Chinese Market Correction?

Posted June 6, 2007 · 52 Comments
At Foxhall Capital, we never try to anticipate when something will happen in a stock market, we simply follow the market in the direction it is already going and when there is a major correction we will take defensive actions to manage risk in our client’s portfolios. We continue to watch the Chinese markets carefully. read more


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About Paul Dietrich
Paul Dietrich is the Chairman, CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer of Foxhall Capital Management, Inc. (Foxhall).  Foxhall currently manages investments for individuals, mutual funds and private institutions throughout the United States. Paul Dietrich is also a portfolio manager to a publicly traded mutual fund, the Foxhall Global Trends Fund.
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